高盛看原油会见到95美元

henry

Goldman Calls for $95 Oil
Posted by Mark Gongloff



This is what’s happening to oil, only twice as much. (AP)
Goldman Sachs, which in 2005 famously suggested crude oil could spike to $105 a barrel before demand destruction kicked in, on Sunday raised its target for Nymex crude-oil prices for year-end 2007 and 2008, saying crude could end that two-year run as high as $95.

Goldman projected oil would end this year at $85 a barrel (it’s not far from that today, having set a new intraday record of nearly $81) and would end next year at $95. Goldman analysts warn oil could spike above $90 this year and expect it to average $85 next year. That’s right, average $85.

Goldman’s thesis is that oil is in a “cyclical” bull market caused by tight supply and OPEC production cuts, at the same time it’s in a longer-term, “structural” bull market caused by inadequate production capacity — a “bull-bull” market, or double-bull market, which is sort of like being on double-secret probation, only with fewer togas.

The analysts go on to say that high prices and a slowing U.S. economy could hurt demand for a time next year, but that supply constraints will likely gain the upper hand and drive prices higher again. “It is important to emphasize that the current market deficit is being driven more by supply shortages than by excess demand, which is why upside price risks are so high despite significant economic growth concerns,” they write.

henry

以前说过上100，现在说95，不知道算不算降低评级了。

henry

其实，现在飓风季节快要结束了，十月要看美国下不下大雪了。正处于一波渐平一波未起的阶段。

henry

飓风季节没有被吹坏多少东西，原油还是上了80，市场的供求还是紧张。

xboy

谢谢。

全球的大通胀。

xlb783783

好啊。。可是中国没有原油期货，燃料油期货又走的很怪。。呼呼