昨晚WTI

henry

Oil Tops $69, Hits Nine-Month High
By MASOOD FARIVAR
June 18, 2007 3:54 p.m.

Crude-oil futures rose more than $1 Monday, climbing above $69 a barrel for the first time since last September after fresh militant attacks on Nigerian oil installations and separate plans by Nigerian and Brazilian workers to strike.

The rally extended a sharp advance last week that came after the Department of Energy reported an unexpected drop in U.S. refinery activity and said gasoline stocks, counter to market expectations, remained flat, renewing worries about supplies during the peak U.S. summer driving season.

With supply worries taking center stage, analysts say prices appear poised to push higher, with New York crude futures expected to make a run for the psychologically important $70-a-barrel level. However, uncertainty ahead of this week's U.S. energy data is likely to keep any gains in check.

The July crude futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange smashed through key resistance at $68.30 a barrel, a nine-month high set on Friday, to rise $1.09 to $69.09 a barrel, the highest close since September.

"I think that the market closed strong technically on Friday and I think it was looking for an excuse to go higher," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "I think the Nigeria situation is really raising concerns at a time when the market thinks we need as much oil as we can."

Hundreds of angry Nigerian villagers chased workers away from a Chevron oil-transfer facility Monday in restive Niger Delta, occupying the premises and, according to one report, forcing Chevron to shut production.

The attack followed a separate incident in which gunmen overran a flow station in the Niger Delta run by Eni SpA subsidiary Agip and were holding workers and army soldiers inside.

The incidents, along with a plan announced earlier Monday by Nigerian labor unions to stage an indefinite strike beginning Wednesday, renewed worries about oil supplies in Nigeria where more than 700,000 barrels a day of oil production remains shut in due to militant attacks.

"People had been trying to get optimistic about Nigeria providing more barrels to the market," said Andy Lebow, senior vice president of risk management for brokerage Man Financial in New York. "This gives them pause."

Petroleum products posted more modest gains on Nymex. Reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, for July delivery rose 0.42 cent to $2.2643 a gallon. Heating oil for July delivery gained 2.36 cents to $2.0342 a gallon.

Tom Bentz, an analyst at BNP Paribas Futures, said the rally was being driven by "potential Brazilian and Nigerian strikes, the attack on Nigerian flow station" as well as technically triggered buying.

Workers at state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro, or Petrobras, may go on a five-day strike beginning July 5, Brazil's main oil workers' union said in a news release on its Web site.

The council of the federation of Brazilian oil worker unions, or FUP, Sunday unanimously approved a strike that would affect Brazil's oil production, the release said. Petrobras produces more than 95% of Brazil's oil output of about 1.85 million barrels a day.

Brazil has the second-largest crude oil reserves in South America after Venezuela and is set to become a net oil exporter in 2006, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Oil prices rallied more than 5% last week after the Department of Energy reported an unexpected drop in U.S. refinery activity and said gasoline stocks, counter to market expectations, remained flat.

Refinery utilization fell 0.4 percentage point to 89.2% of capacity in the week ended June 8, while gasoline stocks remained unchanged at 201.5 million barrels, well below their historic average, the DOE said in a report, renewing worries about U.S. gasoline supplies.

henry

WTI正在从contango转向backwardation. 与BRENT价差也在缩小.

xboy

现货开始 升。。。

paulzhu

要补习英语了

henry

Crude Oil Nears Key $70 MarkBy MASOOD FARIVAR
June 20, 2007

Crude-oil futures have their eyes on the $70 mark again.
Benchmark futures in New York set a fresh 9½-month high of more than $69 a barrel Tuesday but fell back after failing to take out the psychologically significant $70-a-barrel mark. But a breach, which has proved elusive all year, now looks increasingly within reach, as traders face fresh supply worries, from tight gasoline supplies at the start of the U.S. summer peak driving season to renewed violence in oil-rich Nigeria.
The latest supply threat comes from Africa's largest oil producer, where more than 20% of the country's daily production remains hampered by militant attacks and where workers are threatening to strike. Brazil, a minor oil exporter, is facing an oil-worker strike of its own.
"At this point, a festive breeze could get us to $70," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup in New York, noting that liquidity in the nearby crude contract has all but dried up ahead of expiration today.
The nearby crude-oil contract for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped as high as $69.56 a barrel, the highest level for a front-month contract since last September, before ending at $69.10 a barrel, up one cent.
The front-month contract has surged more than 8% so far this month. Crude for delivery in September and beyond all ended above $70.00 a barrel, while the August contract got as high as $69.97.
The seed of the rally was sown last week after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. refinery utilization, or the amount of refining capacity in use, unexpectedly fell for the week ended June 8, while gasoline stocks remained unchanged.
That put an end to three weeks of decline in oil prices and shifted the spotlight to tight U.S. petroleum-product supplies. Once again, traders remain focused on weekly EIA data, due out today, with the outcome likely to determine whether crude prices can breach $70 a barrel.
Philip Gotthelf, president of brokerage Equidex in Closter, N.J., said a further drop in refinery utilization and gasoline stocks could lift prices well above $70 a barrel.
"With a very bullish report coming on the heels of Middle East tensions, people are going to want to hedge their position," Mr. Gotthelf said.
On the other hand, an increase in refinery use and a build in petroleum-product stocks could push prices back towards the mid-$60s, he said.
High oil prices have come against a backdrop of continued production restraints by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, adopted late last year and early this year. However, if prices continue to rise, analysts believe OPEC may be more inclined to relax the output cuts, both to appease political outcry in big consuming nations and to protect oil demand.
"It's not in OPEC's best interest to allow the price of oil to go markedly above $75," said Mr. Gotthelf.
Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., a New York brokerage firm, agreed that prices remain susceptible to sharp changes amid supply uncertainty.
"We could see $75 a barrel or we could see $65 a barrel in a few weeks, depending on what the summer is going to look like," Mr. Gheit said. "The same unknowns are still in play. What happens in Venezuela? What happens in Nigeria?"
Another big unknown is the Atlantic hurricane season, which is forecast to be unusually active this year. While predictions of an above-average season fell flat last year, traders nonetheless remain jittery at the start of the season.