周期轮回
The developed world may have seen the low in bond yields
Mar 24th 2012 | from the print edition
EQUITIES may be enjoying a bull run but the government-bond market has turned sour. Having bottomed at 1.67% in September, the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond has risen to 2.38%, with the sell-off accelerating in the past two weeks.
股票市场最近似乎很牛掰 ，相比之下政府债券市场就悲催一点了。十年期国库券的收益率在九月份跌到了1.67%的低谷，现在回升到2.38%。在过去的两个礼拜里，国库券被加速地抛售。
A rise in yields from what were very low levels, in historical terms, is not that surprising. The economic data have been better than expected since the start of the year, particularly in America, calming fears of a global recession. A torrent of central-bank loans to euro-zone banks and Greece’s debt-restructuring deal have made investors less nervous about a break-up of the euro, removing the appeal of Treasury bonds as a haven.
纵观历史，国库券收益率在到达低点后回升再平常不过了。从今年年头起，（尤其是美洲的）经济数据比预期乐观，抚平了人们对全球衰退的恐惧。中央银行向欧元区银行的贷款流和希腊的债务重组减轻了投资者对欧元崩溃的担心，也减弱了国库券作为避险工具的吸引力。
The big question is whether this is a turning-point in the bond market. The chart shows how the rise and fall of Treasury-bond yields over the past century-and-a-bit divides into very long phases. Chris Watling of Longview Economics points out there has been a remarkable regularity to the past three cycles—a 29-year downtrend, followed by a 32-year uptrend and another 31-year downtrend lasting to the present. This pattern is probably a coincidence but it does illustrate that bond-market cycles are rather longer than those in the equity market. Mr Watling points out that the early stages of bond cycles (1920-29, 1949-68 and 1982-2000) have been associated with equity bull markets while the latter stages (1929-49, 1968-82 and 2000 to date) have been associated with bear phases.
不过，问题的重点在于，这已经是债券市场的转折点了吗？上图显示了美国国债收益率在过去一个世纪相当长的时段里收益率的涨跌起伏。Longview Economics（英国一家主要从事市场时机、经营专题、宏观经济及大宗商品研究的机构，译者注）的Chris Watling发现了一个明显突出的规律——在过去美国国债收益率出现了三个周期：一个29年的下行周期，接着是一个32年的上行周期，再然后是一个32年的下行周期，这个周期持续到现在。这些规律也许只是一个巧合，不过，却也显示出，债券市场的周期比股票市场的要长。Walting还指出，早期的债券市场周期（1920-29,1949-68以及1982-2000）和股票牛市相关，后期的周期（1929-49,1968-82以及2000至今）则与股票熊市相关。
The big bear markets in bonds were associated with higher inflation. There was a brief inflationary period associated with the first world war and a much longer burst of rising prices after the second world war which culminated in the 1970s. Some fear the inevitable response to the current crisis is that countries will attempt to inflate away their debt.
债券市场的大熊市和较高的通胀有关。在第一次世界大战前后出现了一次较短的通胀时期，在第二次世界大战之后则出现了一段较长的通胀，直到1970年才结束。有些人担心，为了应对当前的危机，有些国家会不可避免地尝试利用通胀甩去债务。
But there is not much sign of this in the consumer-price indices. Inflation is expected to average 2-2.5% this year in America, Britain and the euro zone. And bond investors do not seem to be too concerned about the near future, to judge by the breakeven inflation rates (the gap between the yield on conventional and inflation-linked bonds). These reached a nadir of just under 1.5% (for five-year bonds) in September and are now up to 2.1%; for ten-year bonds, there has been a move from 1.7% to 2.4%. But those rates are still consistent with central-bank inflation targets.
不过，CPI数据却也没显示出什么端倪。在美国、英国和欧元区，预期通胀率是2-2.5%。根据平衡通胀率（固定收益的美国公债与通膨连动的公债之间的差异），债券投资者们看起来对近未来并不是那么的担忧。五年期债券的平衡通胀率在去年九月跌到了低于1.5%的低谷，现在回升到了2.1%；十年期债券的则是从1.7%上升到2.4%。不过，这些数字都和央行的通胀目标相符。
There is a problem, however, with using market numbers to divine the mood of private-sector investors: central banks have been intervening heavily in the bond markets at both ends of the yield curve. Charles Kindleberger, a financial historian, long ago established that credit creation was a key component of bubbles. You cannot always tell where the bubble will emerge but central banks have given a big hint this time by buying the asset directly.
不过，用市场数据来推断私人部门投资者的心情是有问题的：央行在强力干预债券市场收益曲线的两头。金融史学家Charles Kindleberger很久以前就曾预言说，信用创造是泡沫产生的一个主要原因。我们无法总是了解泡沫是从哪里冒出来的，不过这次答案很明显，央行直接购买了好多的资产。
The policy is designed to revive the economy but the effect on investors, many of which are forced by regulations to hold government bonds, has been dubbed “financial repression”. By keeping rates low at a time of massive fiscal deficits, central banks are also reducing the pressure on governments to get their finances in order. “When a central bank actively seeks to keep yields below inflation in order to generate negative real interest rates, by implication it is imposing negative real returns on investors,” says Hans Lorenzen of Citigroup. “In so doing, it is ensuring that the sovereign can borrow cheaply.”
这个政策的初衷是激活经济，不过那些被迫持有政府债券的投资者则戏称这个政策为“金融镇压”。央行通过在大规模财政赤字时期压低利率的政策，帮政府财政减压。花旗集团（Citigroup）的Hans Lorenzen说：“当央行积极地把收益率压低到通胀率以下以维持负的真实利率时，实际上就是把投资者的真实收益压低到负的水平。央行这样做，就是为了保证国家可以以低的成本借款。”
Another worry is how governments and central banks can return policy to a pre-crisis setting. In Europe attempts at fiscal austerity have been followed by deep recessions. Can central banks raise interest rates to normal levels of 3-4% without causing widespread bankruptcies? Can they withdraw liquidity support from commercial banks without causing a financial crisis? And can they offload their government-bond holdings without causing a very sharp rise in yields?
另一件值得忧虑的事情是，政府和央行将怎样把政策恢复到危机前的状态。在欧洲，财政紧缩的政策带来了深深的衰退。央行能够在把利率调升到3-4%的正常水平的同时又不造成大范围的破产吗？他们能够在从商业银行撤出流动性支持的同时又不造成金融危机吗？他们能够在放弃持有政府债券的同时又不引起收益率的急升吗？
Given these risks, it is not difficult to construct a bearish scenario for bonds. Indeed, central banks were also holding short rates at very low levels at the last nadir for bond yields in the late 1940s (a moment when, as now, governments were trying to deal with accumulated debts).
考虑到这些风险，看跌政府债券也就理所当然了。实际上，在1940年代晚期（当时就跟现在一样，政府在焦头烂额地处理累积的债务），央行也在最低点以低的短期收益率水平持有债券。
But even if bond yields have touched the bottom for this long cycle, it is worth remembering that the period of low yields in the 1940s was quite protracted, lasting eight years or so. In the short term, if yields were to rise too far, to 3% or so, central banks could always step in with another round of quantitative easing. The great bear market in bonds may have begun but the decline will not necessarily be precipitous.
不过，即使债券收益率已经在此轮周期中触底，我们也不能忘记，1940年代的低利率持续了八年之久。在短期，如果收益率上升得太多，如3%，央行也会跟进实施数量宽松政策。债券大熊市恐怕已经开始，不过，收益率的跌幅也不会很大就是了。
from the print edition | Finance and economics译者：徐文婕
本文原文出自《经济学人》杂志 |
发表于 2012-3-26 09:24:17
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