Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
My answer is probably not. The dollar looks just awful no matter how many patriotic talking heads think it is required to say otherwise.
Also what makes you think that the dollar carry trade is made up of long only investors? They are wild ass all sides traders.
The dollar carry trade, i.e. Wall Street, got the green light from the Fed for the next year at the least.
Does Disaster Loom from Dollar Funded Carry Trades?
November 09, 2009
Karl Denninger
The U.S. currency dropped against 12 of its 16 major counterparts asthe International Monetary Fund said traders are probably using the dollar to fund so-called carry trades around the world and it may still be overvalued.
I hope everyone here in The United States takes a moment to understand what this means. Let me lay it out for you:
When the global economy truly recovers oil will skyrocket up to or beyond the $150 where it was in late 2008. If the dollar is indeed still "overvalued" and going to 40 as many technicians predict, oil will likely reach $300 a barrel. This will in turn drive gasoline prices north of $6, heating oil will reach $7-8/gallon, and diesel will be commensurate with heating oil.
This will in turn decimate the trucking industry. Now you know why Buffett bought BNI. Many things he may be, but dumb isn’t one of them. Trucks will of course remain for terminal-to-door deliveries but for long-haul they will simply be uneconomic. Those who currently are employed in this business will lose their jobs. All of them.
The middle class will be decimated. Those who live in suburbia, who are primarily middle-class Americans, will find themselves faced with commuting costs that are double or more what they pay now. Those in the middle class who live in the Northeast where heating oil is the primary fuel for winter, where natural gas infrastructure does not exist to replace heating oil, will find themselves choosing between heat and food in large numbers. |
发表于 2009-11-4 10:33:35
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