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发表于 2010-12-13 11:31:28
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shanghai bc 05:16 GMT September 26, 2004 Reply
NOODY -- China imports as much as it exports in recent years..The overall trade balance is evenly balanced..The overall trade surplus is less than what its cb makes from currency trading each month during good runs.. From China's perspective,it does not feel obliged to revalue or devalue its currency at present when the trade account is so well balanced..If China makes hundreds of billions of Dollars of surplus from its world trade each year,that is another issue..China may not have any valid argument on that side..But China may be having trade deficits this year thanks to massive imports from all over the world..China is now the 3rd largest importer in the world while only 4th larget exporter in the world..Many countries owe their recovery to China's massive imports in recent years ,starting from Japan and many Latin and Asian countries..Floating its currency in time may work in time..But then it should be China who sets its time table because it knows its situation best,not some foreign politicos whose agenda is all about more votes in their constituencies.. Assuming China decides to gradually float sometime around 2006(at least before 2008 Olympics),it may provide one more currency with decent liquidity to trade for us all..And if most chinese savers rush to buy foreign currencies for whatever reasons(these folks have some 1.8 trillion Dollar worth of RMB in their savings a/c),RMB may drop like a stone contrary to the expectation of many foreign politicians..And it will create a lot of headache for China's cb too..All foreign currencies may shoot to the Moon against RMB too..RMB's upward path is not all that assured at least at the start of floating given its low interest rates and bank's massive bad debt issues..In longer term,RMB may steadily rise against most major currencies.. |
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发表于 2010-12-13 12:06:20
发表于 2010-12-13 13:51:02