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livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:13:31

shanghai bc 23:59 GMT October 19, 2007 Reply

The truth for G-7

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:14:18

shanghai bc 11:11 GMT October 19, 2007 Reply
St. Annaland Bob 10:56 GMT October 19, 2007

I am worse than useless as a daytrader or even as a short-term trader..The best chances to buy Eur/usd were in early September and two weeks ago recently..And we are approaching medium-term overbought level above 1.45

..Good trades..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:15:02

shanghai bc 10:48 GMT October 19, 2007 Reply
Melbourne DC 04:36 GMT October 19, 2007

Good evening..Not expecting anything of value from G-7..China would carry on its own Rmb business with or without G-7 statement..Same for Japan's Yen business..Perhapse they should talk about how to end Dollar-hegemon first to redress the whole imbalance ..The politicians,being amateurs on the issue, get the causasion issue all wrong..

On Aussie, expecting it to keep rising as long as BHP keeps rising

..Good trades..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:15:52

shanghai bc 10:34 GMT October 19, 2007 Reply
Mumbai NS 05:04 GMT October 19, 2007

Good evening..Usd is not oversold on medium-term basis yet..Usd is not finding its support before G-7 and this is not a good sign for Usd for the next few weeks..Expecting to see Eur/usd 1.45-1.50 region before a medium-term correction starts..Good trades..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:16:30

shanghai bc 04:11 GMT October 19, 2007 Reply
Vail MC 03:08 GMT October 19, 2007

Aussie's cycle is basically tied to the performance of commodities and commodty stocks..In the present leg,it may rise a bit more to .91-.92 region before a good correction sets in..Further down the road,expecting the Aussie parity with Usd in a few year's time..good luck..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:17:11

shanghai bc 03:04 GMT October 19, 2007 Reply

China outsourced farming to Brazil and Latam..Brazil and Latam have been feeding China for a decade now..Brazil and Latam have been doing fine in recent years..Brazilian Real is effectively a commodity currency in a much larger scale than Aussie or Loonie..Bet on Real is same as bet on commodity bull cycle..Smart move..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:17:41

shanghai bc 13:28 GMT December 6, 2004 Reply

FXQ 12:51 -- Good evening..I did not say Fed is in charge of forex issues..I was just interpreting what various Fed heavyweights said in public in recent days on Dollar issues..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:18:10

shanghai bc 12:38 GMT December 6, 2004 Reply

MUMBAY -- Good evening..It is obvious that Fed folks are on all fours praying for weaker Dollar as long as it does not lead to crash of Dollar asset market.."This is our Dollar but it is your bloody problem" seems to be what they have on their mind now..Given their attitude,anyone who sees a stronger Dollar for the foresseable future now must be either blind or deaf..Good trades.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:20:03

shanghai bc 05:39 GMT November 28, 2007 Reply
nyc nyc3 04:58 GMT November 28, 2007

Dow/Gold rose from 1 to 44 during 1980-2000 and during 2000-2007,Dow/Gold declined from 44 in 2000 to 15 today..In other words,Dow did better during 1980-2000 while Gold has been doing better during 2000-2007..Gold doing exact opposite of stock cycle during these period..I can give you the examples since AD1900 too..You obviously went to a different school of economics from mine

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:21:41

shanghai bc 02:16 GMT November 28, 2007 Reply
hk ab 01:01 GMT November 28, 2007

Gold, on medium to long term basis,is the exact opposite of stock market.. During any serious crash of more than 30% crash,gold and gold stocks almost always do the opposite due to flight to safety effect..But if it is just a normal correction of less than 30% correction,gold and gold stocks and stock market may just all dance together..So it all depends on the nature of corrections..If it is a nasty crash,hold onto gold and gold stocks and nothing else

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:22:27

shanghai bc 00:21 GMT November 28, 2007 Reply
hk ab 00:15 GMT November 28, 2007

Thanks..Just a fluke on my part..Silver is likely to keep rising against Usd in coming years,but the speed of rise may be slower than Gold in this round till the world economy speeds up again..Just a matter of choosing a faster horse in each round..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:22:53

shanghai bc 01:17 GMT June 27, 2004 Reply

Correction.."Usd/Chf is in downtrend channel",not uptrend channel..

shanghai bc 01:15 GMT June 27, 2004 Reply

Usd Index is in downtrend channel firmly below 50 dma..Eur/Usd is in uptrend channel..Usd/Chf is in uptrend channel..Usd/Jpy is in downtrend channel..And that is that..A trend is a trend till it bends ..This is still a Dollar bear market,be it papa bear or mama
bear..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:23:18

shanghai bc 23:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply

SYDNEY 23:22 -- Good morning..I was wrong on that and that was not a fluke call..But I always cover my trades too..That is why I am still in the market after so many years..This game is all about making as much as you can when you are right and losing as little as you can when you are wrong..Simple as that..If anyone dreams of surviving in this market with always correct calls,he is definately a newbie waiting to be baptized by harsh realities of the market..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:24:11

shanghai bc 23:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply

SYD -- Good morning..This is a policy driven forex market..US side wants to devalue Dollar as a way out..And there are 2 trillion Dollar mountain by greater China and Japan and another 2 trillion by overseas Chinese..Their sentiment and pockets may affect dollar beyond shape as long as UD treasury is waving devaluation flag..Mainland chinese have around 0.5 trillion Dollars private holdings ..Dollar's external value may have a lot to do with them as well..Sentiment is everything in forex market..And the prevailing sentiment is "give me anything,just anything, that is not Dollar"..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:24:37

shanghai bc 23:13 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply

PJT -- Good morning..That was a fluke call..Good trades..

CB -- Good morning..I treat that as a sign of last leg of Dollar devaluation..The public is always the last one to join the party..But this last leg could be a very long one too.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:25:00

shanghai bc 23:09 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply

IRISH -- According to BOJ branch folks in China,they will start intervening anytime now with the aim of keeping 100 floor intact..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:25:23

shanghai bc 22:49 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply

IRISH -- Good morning..The prevailing thoughts among traders on this side of the Pond at present..That is sell Dollar no any bounce till US Treasury says enough is enough..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:26:29

shanghai bc 22:33 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply

It is not the Euro buying that pushes up Euro..It is simply the reducing the Dollar mountains that is pushing up the Euro..The world is still full of Dollars with very little Euro..US Treasury and the Fed folks finally showed their last card,the Dollar devaluation card and the market is faithfully following their wish..For Asia,that means simply reducing trillions of Dollars of savings into something which is not Dollar,like Gold or Euro.. ECB or BOJ may have a tough time even with their interventions when US side is waving their Dollar devaluation flag in public..Under the present environment,the floor of Dollar is when US Treasury feels fear of Dollar asset collapse if Dollar starts fast collpase at some stage..At the present leasurly decline of Dollar and Dollar assets doing fine,US Treasury will be rejoicing now..Maybe the Treasury folks are thinking,who cares about you,Eu or Japan,it is all your fault we have to devalue Dollar..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:27:27

shanghai bc 08:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply

Even in 1985 after Plaza,there were so many traders who were doubting the genuine intentions of US administration to get much weaker Dollar after some slide..They were picking the floors of Dolar all the way down..Nothing really changes as far as human nature and trading patterns goes..Short-term,Dollar is certainly oversold and may bounce a bit,but this is the situation where the keepers of the Dollar are begging the market to sell more Dollars on any bounce,just any bounce..Fwiw.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 11:29:12

Shanghai bc 23:44 GMT October 28, 2008
As posted on GVI Forex:

shanghai bc 23:07 GMT October 28, 2008
Markets:

DX was overbought to extreme level and correction was needed to revert back to the means..Expecting it to retrace back to 50 dma in a few weeks time..In Eur/Usd terms 1.35+,in Usd/Jpy terms 100+ and in Eur/Jpy terms 135+..Aud/Usd at 0.60 was a gift for China and Japan..Alas gifts do not fall from sky everyday..Then this rush to US bond lifeboat and DX rise since mid-July may not be over yet..

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