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livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:42:25

Singapore alwaysrespecttheBOJ 00:10 GMT April 9, 2004 Reply
Happy easter guys....When the cats away the mice come out to play...watch out all you dlr shorties out there

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:42:46

shanghai bc 09:58 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply

MOM 09:42 -- Once CNY floats,HKD will float too.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:43:08

shanghai bc 09:24 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply

VIIES -- Good afternoon..I bet USD would be most affected due to the reason that China is a defacto Dollar-Bloc memeber now and when CNY floats ,she does not have to recycle billions of Dollars into US Treasury just to maintain Dollar-Link,thus contracting Dollar demand in the world and reducing Dollar support in financing US debt..East Asia has 1.8 trillion Dollar turnover each year in trade and at least half of it would be in CNY only once China breaks away from Dollar-Link..The loss of Dollar demand in tune of roughly 900 billions each year..That will be the end of "Dollar-Bloc" including USA and East Asia too..Japan may not need to buy so many Dollars too just make sure Yen is compatible with CNY..Any diminished need of Dollar is no good for Dollar strength in the end ..Good trades.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:44:07

shanghai bc 08:57 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply

ANDY 08:17 -- Good afternoon..Any normal curency getting into interest rate up-cycle tends to get into untrend..But Long bond yield is still falling making it difficult for Dollar to make any significent rally ..I guess this Dollar stalemate may last for some more weeks in 90--87 region..Till ECB hints at rate hike sometime this year..Still buying anything around Eur/Usd 1.20 and Usd/Jpy 110 and below..Dollar and Usd/Jpy may not get much uplift while China and USA are correcting..Good trades.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:45:39

shanghai bc 08:11 GMT September 10, 2004 Reply

SAM 07:48-- Good afternoon..Not much of a techie but I have been buying anything below .70 for months by now..Then,we have lots of kangaroos to buy and anything below.70 seems to be reasonable bargain price for a lomng time to come..If you are more price concious,start buying on the break of Aud/Jpy .76.30 may yield faster profits..Good luck.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:46:48

shanghai bc 11:19 GMT June 11, 2007 Reply
St. Annaland Bob 11:05 GMT June 11, 2007

By raising rates,they should have known traders would buy Kiwi ..And traders in fact bought and the bank intervened afterwards..If they had not raises rates,the traders may well have stayed away and Kiwi may have stayed below the major breakout point..Very interesting strategy of intervention by the bank.."Provoke the dog and kick it" strategy..The dog may bite harder..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:47:46

shanghai bc 11:04 GMT June 11, 2007 Reply

RBNZ must be the first cb which intervens while raising rates at the same time..Very interesting strategy indeed..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:48:58

shanghai bc 12:49 GMT September 10, 2007 Reply

She should have moved to Hongkong or Macau where there is no tax on gains from forex trading..Location,location even in forex..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:52:24

shanghai bc 15:54 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply

VIKTOR -- 2004 may be a rough year given its tendency to have bad luck in every year with number 4 in US economic cycle, with 10 year cycle floor coming in a year with number 4..Supposing Fed keeps the economy alive with much more injection of printed money in 2004 while building more bubbles,2005 is a year with number 5..USA never had an economic crash in the year with number 5 for the last 140 years..So,2005 may be not that bad again..2006 onward is unknown number although I believe this credit and debt bubble building with astronomical numbers cannot possibly go on that long..Then,not many who expeirenced great economic disasters in the past are still alive today to warn the folks of impending economic disasters..And we humans always repeat the same mistake, economic or otherwise, although the place and time and people involved differ each time..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:54:15

shanghai bc 07:42 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply

NT -- Fed has been injecting some 100 billion+ dollars each month into the market for the last 16 months..In other words,dollar never had a chance to get lifted in the first place thanks to them printing dollars like there is no tommorrow..Some 1.6 trillion dollars of injection into the market in that period..With that kind of money being injected,even a pig can fly let alone Dow..Then,those trillions are just the money printed by the Fed at their pleasure not the money earned by the nation..No wonder Dollar is having a hard time to get lifted even with very poor EZ economy..The next financial crisis of the world is surely coming in the form of once in a century-credit and debt bubble to be burst starting from USA..Any kind of paper asset especially stox will lose value beyond recognition while gold will rise beyond recognition too..Dollar in general does poorly when the world goes into economic trouble..It used to do rather well when there was a political trouble in the world but 911 removed all that premium off the Dollar as well..Dollar is on fundamentally weak ground despite its sporadic bounces of some months from time to time..Fwiw..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:54:49

shanghai bc 12:57 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply

NT 06:37 -- Oil may correct for short-term towards 40-45 region..But medium to long term,Oil and the commodities are in mega bull market based on real demand growth from China and India,40% of the whole humanity..Oil and Commodity markets should concentrate more on demand growth side which is a real driving force in these markets..There are too many short-term specs from time to time which needs to be cleaned out but the underlying conditions in these markets are fundamentally bullish..Either China and India's modernization drive collapses or Oil is used up opening a new chapter to another era in the end..Whichever comes first,the Oil and the commodities are to ride once in our life time mega-bull-ride for years to come ..Forex market or even stock markets look like the market for retired folks in their 80's when compared to Oil and Commodity markets these days..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:55:44

shanghai bc 13:02 GMT July 16, 2006 Reply
Sydney ACC 11:12 GMT July 16, 2006

For currency traders,that fact is relevant to remind them that Dollar has been extremely overbought,not oversold as some may believe..On why should anyone have so much of other's money,the main reason has been to weaken one''s own currency to remain competative in exports for all Asian countries..That may change when the economies change into internal consumption based economy from export-oriented economy..And that is the direction of China at least..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:57:22

shanghai bc 10:34 GMT December 30, 2003 Reply

LONDON 10:08 -- Good evening..Since it is so quiet today,from medium-term trader's point of view,Eur/Usd has been trading roughly in a band of 1500-1000 pips from 250 dma lines for well over a decade..Once it trends away from 250 dma into 1000-1500 pips range,it tends to come back to 300-500 pips range towards the same line on profit takings..So,given 250 dma being around 1.14 at present,it is already well into the pull back range from medium-term trader's point of view..The maxium range could be up to 1.29 level with possible pull back to 1.20-115 range later..That is how some medium-term players see the market odds at present but given thin market at present,it is neither easy to unload nor easy to load..BTW,we have bounced off from 250 dma in Sep and still riding that bounce..But once 250 dma is breached on the down side one day,that may be the end of Euro's happy ride and time to start selling every bouces for medium-term players..Imho..Good trades..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:57:45

shanghai bc 09:52 GMT December 30, 2003 Reply

AS 06:04 -- Guangdong provincial officials have no authority to confirm or deny SARS case on their own..They have to ask Beijing experts for confirmation first and once confirmed by Beijing experts and WHO is informed, the news will be released..AFP may be jumping the gun a bit..That Guangdong man is still under observation as of today..Taiwan SARS patient has recovered and released today..Fwiw..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 09:59:15

shanghai bc 01:39 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply
Sydney ACC 21:55 GMT July 14, 2007

The rise of Dow since 2003 till now is in in minus territory when computed in Euro and some other major currencies..That sums up the true nature of Dow rise..It has been on the back of falling Dollar given the structural issue of US economy. For example, GM has been making roaring profits selling cars in China while at home it behaves like a kind of troubled second division finance company rather than a car-maker..We can say falling Dollar is in the interest of US multi-nationals..On bond yield issue,if the foreigners leave bond market en masse for safety and better returns elsewhere ,Dollar is bound to fall even when the yield keeps rising..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 10:00:36

Goes SpongeBob 15:17 GMT July 22, 2005 Reply
good afternoon shanghai bc,

would you suggest to keep RMB deposits as RMB or to change now into USD deposits, many thanks in advance for your opinion.

gt

shanghai bc 15:38 GMT July 22, 2005 Reply

GOES 15:17 -- Good evening..Neither RMB nor USD but physical Gold..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 10:00:57

shanghai bc 15:12 GMT July 22, 2005 Reply

Japan's 60% export is to East Asia while East Asia rely on China trade or expor to China for growth..Hence Yuan moves affect all China-centric East Asian currencies..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 10:23:51

shanghai bc 12:13 GMT March 23, 2007 Reply
hk revdax 11:57 GMT March 23, 2007

An old man trader with a young lady nurse talking about rice trade in sick bed?..Very suspicious circumstances,to say the least..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 10:26:05

shanghai bc 11:07 GMT December 24, 2003 Reply

AG -- Merry X'Mas..MOF/BOJ are determined to slow down the fall of Usd/Jpy below 105 before new year and 100 before 31/3/2004 even if it means spending another 1/2 trillion Dollars in the process..But I guess we may slowly and slowly go down eventually to reach 100-105 region, first half of next year..But that must be another good value area for Dollar for medium-term players..Real economies of Japan and EZ cannot possibly withstand much further devaluation of Dollar in this round..More devaluation may have to wait in next round when China sets up more flexible forex regime too..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 10:26:30

shanghai bc 10:14 GMT December 24, 2003 Reply

LOLO 06:00 -- Good evening..Merry X'Mas and a happy new year ..Expecting Gbp/Jpy and Eur/Usd to correct for some weeks during the early part of next year before fresh buying comes in again..Yen crosses are the ones to watch for further Eur/Usd moves..

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