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livermore

shanghai bc 00:58 GMT December 14, 2008

DX finally fell through 50dma this week..It is still riding DX correction cycle started in November..DX correction is likely to play out a few more weeks targeting 82-81 region at some point..In Eur/usd terms 1.35-1.37 region..Daily fluctuation is another issue..

Usd/Jpy fell further this week below 90 indicating DX weakness on all fronts both against European and Asian currencies..Korean Won rose 7.5% during the week too while Yuan stayed relatively stable..But Mof of Japan is highly unlikely to let Yen keep rising..They will do something about it to make sure it goes back to 95-100 region in coming weeks..And it does not have to be public intervention..

Continuing bad news of all types from US front fail to send US stocks to new lows..And the US stocks may further stabilize in coming weeks..And that stock stabilization may help DX correction..

Crude oil and Gold are likely to benefit while DX corrects too..

In a bit longer time frame,if it is about wealth preservation,investing in Gold for the next year may be a good choice..All cbs in G-20 countries are highly likely to resort to printing press to float the sinking economy and being coupled with no yield or low yield bonds in almost all countries,Gold may be forced to rise in coming years..It kept its value or purchasing power against Usd this year while making new highs against many major currencies and stocks..It may do much better for the next few years..

livermore

shanghai bc 13:41 GMT January 10, 2004 Reply   

HAT -- Google is your best hunting dog..Good luck..

livermore

shanghai bc 12:49 GMT January 10, 2004 Reply   

AB -- For medium-term players like me,the next big money is in betting on slow and zig-zag Dollar bounce from around Dollar Index 85 towards 90-95 region which may take a few months or more..The Dolar may face another kick down from those 90-95 region towards a fresh low sometime this year..Gold and Aud may have the similar moves too..Of course,daily moves ,no matter how dramatic,are nothing but a small market noise as far as those players are concerned..All trends look invincible towards the end of its run though..Imho..

livermore

shanghai bc 09:47 GMT January 10, 2004 Reply   

AB 00:45 -- Good evening..The concept of fair value in any currency is largely that of cbers and economists and not much about trading ..Almost always currencies overshoot from the fair value areas some 20-30% in their medium-term trend and what makes all hard currencies range in reasonable areas overtime since we had this floating regime in 1971 must the ability of relevant cbs to control the currency ranges and their real economy's weakness or strength to support those ranges..ECB folks were not joking when they said Eur/usd was some 25% undervalued from the fair value when Eur/Usd was below parity levels two years ago..Same goes for BOJ when they were saying Yen was some 10-20% overvalued when it was trading around 100 some three years ago too..That is how these folks view the markets and try to guide the market..Of course,when US Treasury folks say "Dollar is still strong" when it is falling,they are begging the market to sell more Dollars..

Eur/Usd 1.15 as the medium-term fair value was the one given by ECB folks last year..Usd/Jpy 110 by BOJ folks and Aud/Usd .65 by RBA folks last year..I presume these are the levels they consider their real economies can cope with the currency strength without causing trouble to their real economies..You can see Euro and Aud are the ones which have very much overstretched from their fair value at present while Yen is still in comfortable area..

livermore

shanghai bc 12:03 GMT December 7, 2008

Correction.." DX correction toward 50 dma" ,not 500 dma..

shanghai bc 12:01 GMT December 7, 2008

Despite the fact that the economic numbers coming out of Euroland were awful and ECB cut rate by 0.75%,the forex market could not take out Eur/usd 1.25 and Eur/Usd closed above 1.27 this week..For the last few weeks,there has been steady support above Eur/usd 1.25 too even when the leading US stocks were battered..If the bad numbers and figures cannot push Eur/usd further down the road,it is highly likely to be the result of some heavy buyers with deep pockets absorbing all the selling pressure..Eur/usd has been largely range bound for more than a month now indicating steady buying power..In other words,pending US stock stabilization,there is a good chance of Eur/Usd making a good bounce in coming week well above 1.35..

US stock market had to bear the selling pressure all week coming from recession confirmation and the worst unemployment figures for many years..Still the Dow stood the selling pressure and firmed instead..In otherwords,the US stock market may be ready for a good bouce pending some good news..US stock market bounce is highly likely to put pressure on DX forcing it to correct toward 500 dma first in coming weeks too..

On Usd/Jpy,once Crude oil price stabilize,it is highly likely to go back to 100 again in no time..This is a fast mover all the time given the modus operandi of the major Yen players..

Crude oil price was the only major one kept falling last week while the stocks and major currencies mainly ranged..So Crude oil price stabilization may hold the key to US stock bounce and DX correction in coming weeks..

livermore

shanghai bc 02:46 GMT January 15, 2005 Reply   

Does the Fed manipulate the markets..Does BOJ manipulate the markets..Does ECB manipulate the markets..Or are they just in the market watching the flow go by ..Market is a food chain in a grand scheme of things..Governments try to pass the risk to their citizens while one state tries to pass the risk to another state..All others in the know are just trying to dance to the tunes of those "manipulators /watchers" while those who do not know where they are and what they are doing are just there to be slaughtered in time like in a safari park..The thing is to know which part of food chain one belongs in this grand safari park,be it a a trillon dollar fund or a dollar fund, and learn the tunes of the manipulators/watchers and take an appropriate strategies and tactics to survive..

livermore

shanghai bc 12:50 GMT September 20, 2003 Reply   

FXQ -- ECB's main complaint is that Euro should not bear the full brunt of the Dollar weakness..In other words,they do not like to see too strong Eur/Jpy while Usd/Jpy is marking its steps..

livermore

shanghai bc 12:41 GMT September 20, 2003 Reply   

AHE 09:37 -- It is a long standing practice in Japan..The repatriation has been in good volumes in recent weeks and likely to last another week..MOF/BOJ have been defying the gravity of the market for so long and unlikely to give up so easily..If they can still be that lucky till next spring is another question though..Maybe they can still find some comfort from the fact that MOF/BOJ folks have never lost from their lines of inetrventions in the medium-term although they were pushed by the market by a mile from time to time on short-term fluctuations..

livermore

shanghai bc 09:11 GMT September 20, 2003

AB -- Not at all..The truth is everyone wants a weak domestic currency in the present economic climate and they are trying to justify their views and standpoint with whatever argument they can find at hand..Who can blame them when their own jobs are at stake..

shanghai bc - you are wrong, simply review the comments from various ECB types earlier in the month: virtually all touted a much higher EURUSD. For what wonderful reason aside from pride no one knows as the EZ is already at competitive disadvantage at current rates.

livermore

shanghai bc 08:39 GMT September 20, 2003 Reply   

NT -- Without MOF/BOJ folks buying the Dollar as if there is no tommorow,the range of Usd/Jpy 115-125 could not have been maintained that long and Yen would have been around 100-105 range a long ago..It seems that those folks have decided to let the market run over their lines for short-term with the full knowledge that they have never lost from their intervention lines in the medium-term..We will know what a new range they have in mind after the bi-annual book keeping is over this month..Expecting those folks in MOF/BOJ to give up their old habit so easily is still too premature..Japan is just making a weak recovery and the bad experience of ruining the previous recovery with yen rising to 100-105 region in 1999 is still fresh in their minds..Imho..

livermore

shanghai bc 02:38 GMT September 20, 2003 Reply   

AB 00:17 -- China does not move just because someone somewhere wants her to move..US-centric world media is having a ball on China and RMB issue..The issue of RMB or the Dollar is more complicated than those simple minded US politicians and those who do not know much about the financial markets can fully comprehend..It is not even clear if US employment situation will improve when RMB is revalued as some hope..Some other countries will substitute China's role when China becomes too expensive some day with or without RMB moves and the loss of US employment thanks to massive outsourcing by US firms will continue creating less and less manafacturing jobs at home..Not much to do with RMB but more to do with outsourcing by US firms and globalization process going on at present..

More important thing for us traders is that US has taken up "The Weak-Dollar-Policy" in public..And once such policy is in place,it lasts several years to run its course..And that is all that matters for us..

livermore

shanghai bc 23:51 GMT October 1, 2003 Reply   

MOF/BOJ do not operate in the same time frame as the most forex traders do..And their forex strategy is just a part of their overall financial strategy to look after their financial market and the overall economy..And they have never lost from the line they started intervening in the medium term,be it weeks or months..On the contrary,over three decades,intervention is one of the most lucrative business for those folks..All is a matter of timing and strategy for those involved in forex market including MOF/BOJ..The present cycle of interventions should be read with historical reference as well..MOF/BOJ may lose their lines of defence one by one slowly while making sure it takes as long and as agonizing as possible for most specs with the full knowledge that MOF/BOJ always win back all in medium-term..

livermore

shanghai bc 23:59 GMT October 19, 2007

someone's truth describes better...with that said, from my personal point of view the writer has some very strong points for his case...taking over an empire with stronger and better one needs awareness to the faults of the old one and not only jealousy to satisfy...#1 position soon is a done deal, but how you guys will manage to hold it?...by the way, who says that FX and politics are not sides of the same coin?

livermore

shanghai bc 02:34 GMT July 9, 2006 Reply   

Some 5 years of good and detailed track record certified by a credible accountants firm will be good enough to attract any size of good client,private or insitutional client..Then,anyone with such an ability may do well trading one's own account even without running any fund for others..

livermore

shanghai bc 13:28 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   

ST -- Good evening..Eur/Jpy 1.2750-1.2700 may have some support this week and stabilize Usd/Jpy in 104.50-106.50 region..Good trades..

VALDEZ -- Good evening..Euro and its satelite currencies moving around Euro in EZ..In Asian Zone,even Aud and Nzd are treated as Asain currencies by real money folks..

livermore

shanghai bc 13:03 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good evening..Usd/EZ is not that weak and likely to get a good support in coming days..Usd/Asia is very weak and likely to be weaker in coming days..The pig in the middle, Eur/Jpy and Eur/Aud, may be slaughtered ..And EZ currencies get weaker on all fronts except the Pound..Asian,Usd and EZ currencies in the order of their strength in coming weeks and that is where the hot money is heading..

livermore

shanghai bc 12:14 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   

Kuroda of MoF of japan expects Dollar would rise before the coming summer..Presumably,without him lifting a phone..Fwiw..

livermore

shanghai bc 12:28 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   

NT 09:12 --Any market ,be it real estate market or forex market,is all about transfering money from the masses to a few lucky ones in the long run..In most real property speculation cases,the masses make money ,a lot of money,but the money stays as paper profit and evavorate before they realize their paper profit into real hard cash..In most forex speculation cases,the masses barely survive a few years thanks to lack of knowledge of the market and the deadly leverage..But both types of speculators all serve their useful purposes in investment food chain contributing their hard earned money to the market in exchange for a dream ..

livermore

shanghai bc 04:25 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   

NT -- Greater China Region is riding 2008 Beijing Olympics Bubble as far as real estate market goes..I guess the prices in HK,Macau,Beijing and Shanghai and coastal cities will rise at least till early 2008 and a big correction may set in which may last for several years..It is already far too expensive for ordinary folks in major cities..Good trades..

livermore

shanghai bc 08:41 GMT April 10, 2005 Reply   

India and China agree to have a free-trade-zone making it the largest free-trade-zone in the world..And china will back India's permanent membership in US Security Council..