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livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:37:24

shanghai bc 03:21 GMT June 13, 2004 Reply

QINDEX -- Good morning..Your forecast for Gold for the next two weeks please..Good forecasts and trades..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:38:09

shanghai bc 03:18 GMT June 13, 2004 Reply

AB -- Good morning..Still see it as a reasonable bounce for Dollar after a fall..Good trades..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:38:51

shanghai bc 03:02 GMT June 13, 2004 Reply

ST -- Good morning..No exact Engilsh pronuciation for Yuan..RMB sounds smooth..On Usd/Jpy and Eur/Usd ,expecting Yen to do the heavylifting towards 105 while Eur/usd range in 1.19-1.24 for some days..Still expecting medium-term dollar weakness to prevail..Good trades.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:39:46

shanghai bc 01:29 GMT June 13, 2004 Reply

JV -- Good morning..This is the first move towards the floating of RMB or CNY in coming years..Many works have to be done before the formal floating ..Gradual approach is the way to go..CNY will be floated and we will be exchanging trading ideas on CNY in GVI in a few years time too..Then,CNY is unlikely to favour Asian common currency concept..It will be more like USD standing on its own..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:40:45

shanghai bc 01:11 GMT June 13, 2004 Reply

RYE -- Good morning..YUAN mean a round coin with a hole in the middle..In ancient China,folks used to use a string to keep the coins together ..Chinese culture had a great influence in Far-East for milleniums..Japanese and Koreans simply wholesale imported Chinese culture starting from written languages,government structures and even banking system..Chinese call Yuan, Koreans call Won, and Japanese call Yen..They are the same Chinese character meaning the same thing,a round coin with a hole in the middle..In fact,it has been YUAN bloc for millenniums..Renminbi is the name for the modern Chinese currrency when Mao established the People's Republic..Renminbi means "People's Money"..Chinese banking system use the word RMB and Yuan at the same time..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:41:21

shanghai bc 23:12 GMT September 7, 2010

Who really runs Australia ?..Humphrey Appleby or Jim Hacker ?..BHP board of directors or the Cabinet ?..That is the question for foreign investors

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:42:33

shanghai bc 19:03 GMT December 1, 2006 Reply
EU ZORRO 18:48 GMT December 1, 2006

Viva Zorro !..Expecting Gold and Silver to continue to outperform any currency and most of stock index anywhere in the world next year too..Next year is the Year of Golden Pig..Good luck..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:43:05

shanghai bc 18:38 GMT December 1, 2006 Reply

In all probability,this forex train from mid-Oct is unlikely to stop and reverse without cb interventions at some stage..It is at its early stage so far..Dolar Index 80 is a fair target,to start with..Whether Dollar can hold its multi-decade support 80 is a good question too..No matter what,do not stand in front of the train.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:45:12

shanghai bc 23:40 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply

TH -- Good morning..BOJ intervention is a certainty ..The only issue is when and how and how many yards...I guess Usd/Jpy 100--102 is an intervention zone,covert or public..Expecting it to be more of covert operation this time around..Repatriation has not started in earnest yet but some specs are moving earlier in anticipation..Good trades.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:46:29

shanghai bc 22:40 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply

B747-- Good morning..We all make mistake and same for the nations..Germany has officially and fully apolozied to all their neighbours for their war crimes and are paying war compensation to the victims ..Nothing of the sort for Japan..Japan has never officially apolozied to most of their Asian neighbours for their war crimes and still teach their children the invasion in Asia was an "advance"..Their government still refuses to admit their war atrocities in Asia in public..Would you trust your neighbour of that caliber..Ask Japan's neighbours like Korea or Philipines..So much for politics here..Good trades.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:46:59

shanghai bc 22:07 GMT January 16, 2005 Reply

He should have added that that would make it easier for Japan to invade her next door neighbours next time just like the last time.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:47:53

shanghai bc 23:44 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply

DOR -- Good morning..If you have a stronger Yen,say,at 100-105,it costs that much less to buy all the rising commodities including Oil..That is from overall national point of view..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:48:23

shanghai bc 23:11 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply

AG,AB -- Good morning..Buy Gold on dips and sell Usd/Jyp on bounce as the main play for sometime..Rising commodity prices leave Japan and China with no other option..Good luck..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:49:36

shanghai bc 22:52 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply

RC 16:56 -- Where have you been for the last ten years..There has been a fundamental change to the political landscape in Taiwan politics with the emergence of government party which insist on separation of Taiwan from China for the last decade..Those folks even put forward a referendum with separation agenda to the Taiwan public..Mao talked of 100 years to solve Taiwan issue..That was when Chiang Kaishek was runing Taiwan and he was a firm believer of re-unified China one day crushing any separatist movement with iron fist..The only issue between Mainland and Taiwan in those days were about how to do it leaving timing issue at large..That was then and now is now when separatists are gaining strength..What would you do if you were a Nationalist in Taiwan who firmly believes in re-unification of China..Leave those separatists to run wild for "another generation" ?..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:50:21

shanghai bc 23:54 GMT February 17, 2004 Reply

QINDEX -- Good morning..European folks have been in the habit of making friendly "Inquries" on major Asian cbs like BoJ,PBoC and HKMA since the days of BBK when they make preparation for interventions..ECB's last interventions three years ago were after such friendly "inquries" too..Maybe they want to make sure other cbs do not stand in their way as a matter of curtesy..Suspecting Eur/Usd 1.30-1.35 is the most likely area to force ECB to intervene but no such friendly "inquries" on Asian folks yet as of today..Still all hats,no cattles from ECB folks..Good forecasts and trades..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:50:50

shanghai bc 23:20 GMT February 17, 2004 Reply

Asian session may try to have another go at Eur/usd 1.29 and above today..In this round,Eur/Usd is highly unlikely to top out unless ECB folks start firing their connons..All these murmuring by ECB folks are nothing but an invitation to the market to force ECB to show their hands only..Fwiw..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 08:34:50

shanghai bc 23:49 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply

RC 18:09 -- Good morning..I believe that Dollar's rising fortune against all others started its mega-reversal on 15/8/1971 when Nixon removed Golden Standard and since then,it has been all down hill skiing with some bounces in the middle..And in a big picture for the next decades,Dollar may have much more downside beyond our imagination at the present moment..Of course,the above view cannot be used by most in the market for trading purpose for obvious reasons..

The present round of Dollar slide since 2001 has ben the result of Usd assets bubble burst..Recent stimulus to speed up the slide was provided by "Weak-Dollar-Policy" from big-spenders,Bush team..In all probability,we have not seen the floor of this Dollar slide since 2001 before its is reversed and medium-term bounce starts..

The present Dollar mini-bounce is just a distribution excercise by some large traders when the market's liquidity is plenty with high fever..We had good distributions on the way up to Eur/Usd 1.00 and 1.10 and 1.20 all taking some 4-12 weeks covering some 500-1500 pips in each case..Market,forex or otherwise,is all about liquidity and distribution and accumulation dances are as natural as Sun rise and Sun set..We were heading for 1.30 in mid-Jan and we started much needed distribution excercise starting there and we are still in the middle of that excercise which may take another 4-8 weeks covering some 1000 pips from 1.29 line..All these strange explanations on Dollar bounce is nothing but amateurs' reading of the market with no access to the true workings of the market..Imho..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 08:35:30

shanghai bc 07:15 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply

AB 03:16 -- I am betting Eur/usd 1.23 line will fall this time and the next meaningful support comes in around 1.17-1.19 region..In any case,rising 250 dma is likely to support Eur/usd again and Eur/usd starts another northbound march from around there..Expecting this round of distribution and accumulation process to take some 4-8 weeks while other non-dollar units dance to the tune of Eur/usd only with different magnitude..But,once Eur/usd falls through 250 dma line around 1.17 line,I guess Jan.high was the high of Eur/usd for may months,if not years, to come..Imho..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 08:37:19

shanghai bc 23:39 GMT December 14, 2008
Mtl JP 23:15 GMT December 14, 2008

Deflation in a sense that money supply decreased from 20% to 16% recently..China is likely to come out ok from this downturn..Rising unemployment can always cause a problem in any society but given China's world's highest savings rate at government and private levels,folks are well prepared for the downturn..Creating some jobs,be it roads or airports or railways or shopping malls construction jobs, to unemployed young folks may work for a few years pending upturn in cycle..This is just a part of the economic cycle and that is all..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 08:38:33

shanghai bc 22:55 GMT December 14, 2008
Syd 21:18 GMT December 14, 2008

Since there is no inflationary pressure at the moment,devaluing local currency may be one of the most effective weapons in the arsenal of the Old Lady as long as neighbours do not shout..It worked in the 90's like a magic..Selling all his gold at 250 at least taught him some useful lesson in economics for Brown

Syd 22:53 GMT December 14

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