每日市场观察 (欢迎大家发言, 此帖为大家所开, 集思广益)

henry

昨晚美国股市有较大幅度的上涨, 但仍在徘徊区内, 未创出新高. 欧洲股市表现较美股疲弱. 今早日本股市略微高开, 仍处于短线反弹的半山腰.

Deals Help Stocks Shrug Off PfizerBank of New York, Mellon Merger
Outweigh Drug Giant's 11% Plunge;
'Santa Will Not Pass You By'
December 4, 2006 5:11 p.m.


A blockbuster bank merger was the cure investors needed Monday to recover from bad news from drug king Pfizer.

Bank of New York said it plans to merge with Mellon Financial in a $16.5 billion deal that would create a financial behemoth with a market value near $50 billion. Shares of Bank of New York, a venerable institution whose founding dates back to Alexander Hamilton, rose 12%. Mellon gained 6.8%.

Financial stocks rallied on the deal. American Express rose 2.3%, Citigroup gained 1.3% and J.P. Morgan Chase added 1.8%, helping boost the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 89.72, or 0.7%, to 12283.85. Shares of component International Business Machines gained 2.5% amid an upbeat article in Barron's to pace the Dow.

Other deals added to the enthusiasm, breathing life into stocks after two weeks of lackluster returns. Tech stocks got a boost after chip maker LSI Logic agreed to buy Agere Systems in an all-stock deal worth about $4 billion. Gold Kist agreed to be acquired for $1.1 billion by Pilgrim's Pride in a deal that will create the world's largest chicken processor.
Gaming stocks rallied after Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. unveiled plans to purchase 15 million additional shares of MGM Mirage, raising its stake in the casino operator to 61.1%. And Station Casinos received an offer from a management-led investment group that values the company at $4.69 billion.

On the downside, Pfizer tumbled 10.6% after the company halted the development of torcetrapib, a cholesterol drug, due to deaths and cardiovascular problems in patients who used the drug in clinical tries.

The drug had been heralded as a key driver of billions in revenue growth in future years for Pfizer, replacing its blockbuster drug Lipitor, set to suffer from generic competition as its patent expires as soon as 2010.

Investors decided the development was company-specific, however, and not indicative of the health of the overall market.

Technology stocks advanced broadly, helped by hopes for more mergers and renewed confidence in the economy. The Nasdaq Composite Index, heavy with tech companies, rose 35.18, or 1.5%, to 2448.39. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index added 12.41 points, or 0.9%, to 1409.12, a six-year closing high.

Small caps were also on a tear. The Russell 2000 Index, a small-company benchmark, rose 14.68 points, or 1.9%, to 795.85, a new record high.

Light, sweet crude, which has advanced in the past few weeks amid concerns about supplies and the sliding dollar, fell 99 cents to $62.44 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Last week, stocks declined amid jitters about the strength of the economy and signs of softening holiday sales. Friday, a closely watched report on manufacturing in November contracted for the first time in more than three years, sparking worries that weakness in the housing and automobile sectors is dragging on the broader economy. Early Monday, the National Association of Realtors said its index of pending sales of existing homes fell 1.7% in October from the previous month, and down 13.2% from a year ago.

Comments from Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow, in an interview with CNBC.com, helped ease concerns about the struggling economy Monday. Mr. Moskow said the economy "is solid" and that the central bank's bigger concern is with inflation. That view echoed comments last week by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
Analysts said Mr. Moskow's endorsement of the economy calmed fears raised by last week's soft economic data. "The guys sitting at the head of the class don't buy the weakness argument," said Jim Awad, chairman of Awad Asset Management.

Monday's rally is giving investors hope that the market has regained its footing in December, typically a strong month for stocks, after stumbling at the end of November. Since 1950, the S&P 500 had risen by an average of 1.7% in December amid enthusiasm about the strength of the economy and the holiday-shopping season.
Some analysts are concerned that the market is likely to pull back this month after three straight months of advances. According to S&P, however, since 1928, after the S&P 500 has risen during the three months prior to Christmas -- an event that has occurred 14 times prior to this year -- stocks have risen 71% of the time in December, compared with an average of 73%.

"What that means is, chances are, despite having a good September, October and November, Santa will not pass you by," said Sam Stovall, chief market strategist at S&P. But stocks aren't likely to surge, added the analyst. "The market needs to digest its gains," he said. "It's like sitting down to too many Thanksgiving dinners."
In major market action:

Stocks rose. On the New York Stock Exchange, 2,559 stocks advanced and 786 declined on volume 2.7 billion shares.

Bonds were up. The 10-year Treasury note gained 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 invested, to yield 4.431% Monday. The 30-year bond was up 3/32, to yield 4.543%.

The dollar was mixed. The euro was at $1.3328 from $1.3336 late Friday, while the dollar was at 115.33 yen from 115.47 yen.

henry

昨晚美国股市再度出现重磅并购案. 银行股有较好的涨幅


Bank of New York Agrees
To Acquire Mellon FinancialBy DAVID ENRICH and SIMON KENNEDY
December 4, 2006 7:23 p.m.

NEW YORK -- Bank of New York Co. has agreed to buy Mellon Financial Corp. for about $16.5 billion in stock in a deal that will create one of the world's largest custodians of financial assets and a top 10 asset-management firm.
The marriage of the two so-called trust banks has been predicted by some on Wall Street ever since Mellon in 1998 rejected an unsolicited takeover bid from Bank of New York. Executives said the combined entity, to be called Bank of New York Mellon Corp., will be able to slash costs by eliminating overlapping functions and also that their complementary business models will create opportunities to tap into new revenue sources.

The deal creates a global powerhouse in the lucrative, if unglamorous, business of handling the processing, custodial and back-office tasks that all financial institutions rely on. The two banks also are big players in managing money for wealthy individuals and institutions including corporate pensions, university endowments, central banks and hedge funds.

Wall Street applauded the merger. Mellon's shares, which were up 17% on the year as of Friday, rose 5% to $42.04 Monday. Bank of New York shares, which had been up 8% on the year, rose another 10.4% to $39.16.
Under the terms of the deal, Bank of New York shareholders will receive 0.9434 share in the new company, Bank of New York Mellon Corp., for every share they own. Mellon shareholders will swap their shares on a one-for-one basis. One unusual result of the deal is the terms give a premium to Bank of New York shareholders, who will own 63% of the new company. Mellon will get a 37% stake.

Executives at the two banks defended the deal's terms, arguing that because the deal is a merger of equals that is expected to quickly add to each bank's earnings, the lack of a premium for Mellon shareholders is irrelevant.
Considering the accretion and high rates of return that both companies are anticipating, "this could be the best financial-services transaction ever from a shareholder perspective," said Mellon CEO Robert P. Kelly, who will be CEO at Bank of New York Mellon.

The deal comes on the heels of Bank of America Corp.'s agreement last month to buy U.S. Trust Corp. from Charles Schwab Corp. The Bank of New York-Mellon agreement had the potential to further roil the rapidly changing industry. Shares of State Street Corp. and Northern Trust Corp., the two remaining trust banks, got a boost Monday as investors and analysts bet that the companies could benefit from a rocky integration of their chief rivals or could themselves look for merger partners.

While the two banks described the deal as a merger of equals, Bank of New York will have 10 seats on the combined bank's board, compared to eight seats for Mellon. Thomas A. Renyi, Bank of New York's chairman and CEO, will be executive chairman for 18 months and then will retire.

The combined company will be the world's biggest asset custodian and corporate trustee, with $16.6 trillion in assets under custody and $8 trillion in assets under trusteeship. It will be a Top 10 global asset manager, with $1.1 trillion of assets under management, and also rank as the 11th-largest financial institution in the U.S.

And the merger cements Bank of New York's status as one of the world's Top 10 administrators of hedge funds, servicing a combined $160 billion, or nearly 10% of the world's estimated $1.7 trillion in hedge-fund assets, and brings together about $35 billion in funds of hedge funds and other absolute return investment strategies run by the two companies.

The companies said the deal will allow the combined group to invest and expand more rapidly than its competitors. Executives at both banks pointed to the evolution of emerging markets, growth in hedge funds and investing for retirement as areas they will seek to capitalize on. About 25% of the Bank of New York Mellon's revenue comes from overseas, and executives said Monday that tapping into European and Asian markets would be a priority.

Bank of New York and Mellon said they expect to reduce total pretax costs by about $700 million a year, equivalent to roughly 8.5% of the estimated combined expense base in 2006. The companies plan to reduce the combined employee base of 40,000 by about 3,900 within three years, cutting headcount through normal attrition when possible.

The combined entity will be headquartered in New York, but executives said the merger wouldn't be a major blow to Pittsburgh, where Mellon is currently based. Mr. Renyi said that Bank of New York Mellon will maintain multiple business lines, as well as administrative functions, in Pittsburgh, citing the lower costs of doing business in western Pennsylvania compared to New York.

Assuming the planned cost savings are achieved, Bank of New York said the deal would reduce its operating earnings by about 1% in 2007 and boost earnings by about 1.4% in 2008. For Mellon, the deal will boost operating earnings by about 1% in 2007 and 5.7% in 2008.

The deal is expected to be completed in July 2007, subject to regulatory and shareholder approval, and will result in restructuring charges of about $1.3 billion.

Renyi will serve as executive chairman of the combined company for 18 months following the close of the transaction, with overall responsibility for the integration of the two companies. Kelly will succeed Renyi as chairman. Gerald L. Hassell, currently president of Bank of New York, will be president of the new company.

Goldman Sachs Group advised Bank of New York on the deal. UBS AG and Lazard advised Mellon.

singasong

henry你熬夜可不是我的对手啊

singasong

你是高手,我相当的承认,但是可不可以你换一个名字,太英国了

henry

最近两个交易日, 美国DJ运输指数, 向下突破一个多月来的徘徊区, 同时跌破200日均线. 全球股市很明显已经在超买区, 中线调整仅仅是时间问题

henry

周五美国股市最显著的变化就是纳斯达克100跌破从十一月中旬以来形成的徘徊区, 同时跌破50日均线.  纳斯达克很可能开始了中线调整. 另外, 道指运输指数在跌破徘徊区之后继续跌. 现在的问题是, 什么时候轮到INDU.

henry

大盘在银行股和中段的地产股的带领下, 有较大的涨幅. 下午招行和万科调整, 好了一个较长的上影线. 两市有较大涨幅的情况上, 量没有明显地放大, 另外, 招行和万科虽然收长上影线, 也未见大量出现. 主力资金持有不同的局面仍然持续.

henry

A股, 年底的冲刺. 和H股圣诞节前一样.

start1000

现在流行国家,券商,基金,股民,老百姓五得利,股市完全改观的消息.

骗人的多

henry

银行股, 在07年的第一个交易日, 机构已经失去对它在07年潜力的信心了.  资金会去做什么呢? 接下来的几个交易日, 我们能看出些端倪来.

今天的成交, 不是一般的大. 短期来看, 要调整了.

henry

工行中行, 今天换手率百分之十几. 这么大的盘子.

henry

今天A股的下跌是由港股带动了, 恒指跌391点, H股指数跌358点, 保险银行都是下跌的主力军. 大基金在出货是确定无疑的.

henry

更正, H股指数, 跌418点

henry

提高存款准备金率0.5%, 看来港股和A股市场上, 早有先知先觉者. 那些从银行流出来的钱, 当然会有特殊渠道打提前量. 这些钱对银行系统的政策变化也最敏感.

另外, 受制于托管基金不能投资于托管行的原因, 基金参与工行, 中行的买卖其实比较有限. 除基金外, 还有什么资金有能力推动大银行股上下剧烈波动? A股市场, 现在包括H股市场, 真的是钱深如海.

我们还是不要和人家在政策信息和资金上一较高低的好.

henry

最近三个交易日, 几乎所有的股市, 商品市场都在跌, 大家多注意风险.

treesflower

我在出差，本星期不在家，请HENRY斑竹多多主持

start1000

版主帮忙看看日经,依日本人的脾气,是否在做顶了???

henry

今天A股两市维持大成交量上涨. 普涨的局面. B股和中小板, 前期涨得少的, 开始大涨. 如果不是外围市场拖累的话, 预计国内股市仍然持续疯狂.

今天美元对港币有较大升幅. 资金有流出香港股市的迹象. 未来, 港股的变化, 是AB股的一大隐忧.

henry

调整准备金, 对今天的市场几乎看不到任何影响. A股本身的"钱力"十足.

henry

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原帖由 <I>start1000</I> 于 2007-1-7 12:50 发表版主帮忙看看日经,依日本人的脾气,是否在做顶了???

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<P>我看日经不是这一轮里面的领头羊, 节奏上跟随美股. 圣诞后日经跟日元呈反向关系, 最近网络不好, 信息不灵, 你可以拿日元的前景跟日经配合看. </P>
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<P>我的感觉是, 最近日经, 日元, 日债的焦点是日本的加息. </P>

[ 本帖最后由 henry 于 2007-1-9 11:02 编辑 ]