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livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:01:35

shanghai_BC 的发言，如果冒犯，请版主删除

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:02:41

shanghai bc 12:10 GMT April 14, 2007 Reply

European bond market is much larger than US bond market and European share market is larger than US stock market too..It was not like that for decades until a few years ago..And That was one of the major reasons why Dollar asset market was popular among Asians,the liquidity..The other major reason was that Dollar asset market was safe well away from political turmoils in other parts of the world,the safety premium..Those two major reasons are by and large a history now and European markets,both bond and stocks,are likely to be twice the size of those of US mainland in a decade or so..That is one thing we have to bear in mind as investors and traders..Large real money will try to park their long-term money in Euro assets adjusting their share of Dollar assets..It is a long-term movement which may last a few decades..And the rising size of Chinese and Indian stocks and bond markets on the world stage is one major factor in this game too for the next few decades..It is highly likely that even China alone will be the size US markets in a few decades..Add India to that dimension too..What we are witnessing today is a breakaway from the Brettonwood-2 on gradual basis..And that will be official when Rmb formally goes free floating in less than a decade..As of today,Dollar is still heavily overbought by cbs and individuals alike on long-term basis..Assuming those cbs adjust their Dollar holdings to the level of US share of the world economy,that is some 25%,we will witness the move of some 3 trillion Dollars moving from Dollar assets to other curreency assets..And that is only for cbs holdings..How many more trillions held by firms and individuals will follow the suit is a big question mark too..And as of today,US politicians shout for the devauation of Dollar at faster space while Chinese and Asians are trying to slow the speed of decline of Dollar..It is then no wonder that Chinese publicly anounced no more accumulation of Dollar assets on long-term basis while getiing into the business of more active forex management as of last week..One more step in the direction of free floating at some stage..The world will get serious adjustment of assets market and currency levels in time..And that will be obvious to anyone with open mind and reasonbly good eye-sight too..Fwiw..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:05:40

shanghai bc 16:21 GMT April 14, 2007 Reply
fairfield JC 15:56 GMT April 14, 2007

China's oil trade has been done on the basis of barter-trade in some 80% cases with Iran..Same with Saudis and Africans too..Same goes for mineral transactions in most cases..Not much currency impact on that front..But buying oil fields and mines need hard cash upfront affecting currency transactions..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:06:54

shanghai bc 16:06 GMT April 14, 2007 Reply
GENEVA DS 15:00 GMT April 14, 2007

Nothing is easy in the market..Who would have thought in 1971 Usd/Chf would fall from 4.31 to 1.11 at some point and Usd/Jpy fall from 360 to 79 at some point too..It was not many moons ago when Aud /Usd was at 1.18 and usd/Cad was above the parity too..Only reverting to the norms only in the case of the Anglo-Saxon currencies..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:07:31

shanghai bc 14:39 GMT April 14, 2007 Reply
hk ab 13:00 GMT April 14, 2007

Hkd will follow Rmb in coming years..We are likely to see Usd/Rmb 1:4 in less than a decade..It is in China's interest too..I guess Cad,Aud,Chf and Jpy will all be around the parity or even more expensive than Dollar in that time frame too..That seems to be the wish of US ruling elites as well..I always thought Aud and Cad were heavily undervalued currencies given their enormous potential..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:09:02

shanghai bc 03:51 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply

QINDEX - Good morning..US Treasury believes in "Strong-Dollar-Policy",so,their buddies,BoJ, must be helping Treasury folks in the direction of strong Dollar..More seriously,it is now everyman-for-himself-market for the major nations..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:09:30

PERTH SC 04:31 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply
To Wellington am, DUBLIN CK and anyone else nursing badly burnt fingers:

"When you lose, don't lose the lesson".

Write down what you have done wrong (no stop loss, over-exposure, whatever). Put it on the wall. Give yourself seven snappy upper-cuts when you do the same thing again. Alternatively, don't do the same thing again.

When you get back on the FX horse, you want to do so with a clear head (but a smarter one). Don't get back in with the idea that you have to make X amount of pesos to break even as the dominant theme. If you do so, you will be at a distinct disadvantage from the start. Keep it at the back of your mind only.

FWIW...
Hope this helps.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:10:03

shanghai bc 02:29 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply

From position trader's perspective,Dollar corrected its hefty rise of last week and two weeks before that on bad job numbers on Fri. which is as normal as sunrise and sunset..BOJ folks 10 yard-a-session-trade is the largest one in one session this year although I have seen them throwing around some 15-20 yard a session before..Whether BOJ helped Eur/Usd's rise via Eur/Jpy or hindered Eur/usd rise via Usd/Jpy is not that clear..The question is what is the next likely scenario next week..Most non-Dollar pairs stopped just below the daily neckline which broke last week, which is normal too..Given its liquidity game,Usd/Chf is likely to bounce in a few days towards the previous high of 1.30 level..How the market behaves from there will determine the tone of the market for the coming few weeks..The rumour of DNT 1.2050-1.2650 is at best a rumour but at least it reflects the market sentiment towards certain range in coming days..On Usd/Jpy front,it is still BoJ cannons against Yen buyers and BoJ has been playing it at masterly level..They are likely to get 110-115 range they wish for in coming weeks too..Fwiw..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:12:19

shanghai bc 14:03 GMT December 1, 2007 Reply
Alaska Moon 21:03 GMT November 30, 2007

Thanks..It was just a fluke.. Have a great weekend..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:12:56

shanghai bc 13:36 GMT December 1, 2007 Reply
Atlanta South 13:03 GMT December 1, 2007

Thanks..I am learning from you too..Have a great weekend..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:13:31

Atlanta South 13:03 GMT December 1, 2007 Reply
Shanghai bc
I have followed your post for a long time & I appreciate your willingness to help. Your one of the many that really add value to this forum. Like you I have been in this business many yrs starting in the stock market in the late 70's & also have seen many systems, method & indicators come & go. Many never come to understand what is important in this business & therefore they go the same route as the indicators & methods. Again, tks for your valued post. Gt

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:14:08

shanghai bc 12:35 GMT December 1, 2007 Reply
nj jf 20:58 GMT November 30, 2007

Thanks..I have been in this game since the days of telex and telephone lines with virtually no individual forex traders participation..Seen so many traders and systems come and go and nothing surprises me any more

..Have a great weekend..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:15:06

shanghai bc 23:54 GMT January 9, 2005 Reply

VIIES -- Good morning..I would put on Eur/Usd 1.2900--1.3500 DNT for this month..For whole of 1Q,Dollar is likely to rise a bit more towards Eur/Usd 1.2500..Good trades..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:15:38

shanghai bc 23:35 GMT January 9, 2005 Reply

The holiday for young folks who become adults today just like the holiday for the senior citizens..The spirit must be protect the young and respect the old.

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:18:42

shanghai bc 23:09 GMT September 16, 2007 Reply

Be it stocks or forex or commodities anywhere,it has always been and is and will always be a game of fools donating money to the market..So the thing is how not be to that fool in the market..The notion that any particular financial market is cleaner or trustworthy is like saying any whore is more virtuous than the other whores..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:19:15

shanghai bc 04:53 GMT September 16, 2007 Reply
Mtl JP 03:25 GMT September 16, 2007

Stock prices go up because of earnings expectations..Same for gold mine stocks..More gold production means more profits for the stocks..Gold mine folks here are talking of 200-300% profits next year..Suddenly the mountains in China seem to be full of gold with new discoveries coming up almost each month..Assuming gold goes to 1000+ in a few years,those mine folks may really strike rich..Then we are talking of only some 300 tons of gold each year..A peanut in financial market..Not sure of nickel cycle ..Demand is still very strong in China though..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:32:25

shanghai bc 00:53 GMT September 16, 2007 Reply
Vienna GD 17:01 GMT September 14, 2007

The best play may be via HK stock market where rules of the game is same as in London or Newyork..Buffett and Templeton folks do that way..HKD will eventually have to follow Rmb or being pegged to Rmb instead of Usd..

This year China may become the largest gold producer in the world overtaking South Africa..Three Chinese gold mine stocks in HK and another three in Shanghai and Shenzhen..All of them made 50-200% profits for the last year..In coming years,they may do much better given new discovery of gold mines all over the places and steady gold price..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:34:52

shanghai bc 00:36 GMT November 25, 2007 Reply
NYC nyc3 00:11 GMT November 25, 2007

Trading or investing creates wealth only for the winners in any market..The essence of any market, be it forex,stocks or commodities, is all about chaging money from one pocket to another pocket..And the majority loses year in year out while a minority wins in any market given the nature of any market..If you are not out there to make hay while sun shines,what is the point of being a trader or an investor ?..Your formula of " buying stocks can make you rich" is like saying buying a house can make you rich..Ask the house buyers of the last two years or the stock buyers of 1997-2000..It all depends on when to buy what in any market..

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:36:00

shanghai bc 00:01 GMT November 25, 2007 Reply
NYC nyc3 22:28 GMT November 23, 2007

It is not the stock-buying per se that makes a person wealthy..It is all about when to buy what..Everything is cyclical and has a limited life..It is all about making hay while sun shines either in stock or in commodities or in forex..Most stock simply disappear into the night for good as years go by..How many stocks which were top stars in 1900 or evn in 1950 are still in Dow ?

livermore · 发表于 2010-12-13 04:36:56

shanghai bc 03:24 GMT June 13, 2004 Reply

QINDEX -- .6800-.6850 is likely to be a good option battle ground for a while..

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