外电: 中国竞购力拓不太可能成功

henry

China Buzz Complicates BHP's Rio Bid
Competing Chinese Offer
Is Considered Unlikely,
But Talk Could Be Costly
By PATRICK BARTA in Perth, Australia, and JASON DEAN in Beijing
December 6, 2007

The prospects for a serious Chinese bid materializing for mining giant Rio Tinto are slim, despite persistent buzz in the financial markets and the media. But the rumors themselves could complicate the takeover effort for Rio by larger rival BHP Billiton.

China's business media and some foreign media have published reports in recent weeks suggesting China's government and state-owned companies are weighing a competing offer to BHP's proposal for Rio, which values the company at $134.09 billion, with Rio shares trading 13.2% above BHP's U.K. and Australian offer prices.

For its part, Rio's chief executive said last week the company had listened to the Chinese entities that contacted it but had "not engaged" with them. A spokeswoman for Anglo-Australian Rio, which has offices in Melbourne and London, said yesterday there "has been no change" in its position.

Most analysts say political, financial and logistical hurdles to a Chinese bid make one highly unlikely. It would be "impossible for Chinese companies to succeed" in a bid for Rio, said Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a Beijing think tank affiliated with China's commerce ministry. He cited likely resistance in Australia and other Western countries to a Chinese bid to take over resources on such a scale.

Still, the persistence of the reports could nonetheless complicate matters for BHP, which also has offices in Melbourne and London. Rio officials have argued that their company is worth far more than BHP is offering, and any talk that other suitors might be interested in bidding at a higher price helps buttress their case. It could also help Rio persuade its shareholders that they should wait to see if other serious offers emerge.

Even a whiff of interest from China "adds mystique" to Rio as a target, said Peter Arden, a Melbourne research analyst at Ord Minnett, an Australian investment firm. "If no one else is interested, it all looks hollow, but if there is someone interested, then I think it looks better for them, even if that someone isn't likely to go the distance."

The latest report of a possible Chinese countermove came Tuesday, when a Chinese newspaper, 21st Century Business Herald, said it had interviewed Xu Lejiang, chairman of Shanghai Baosteel Group, China's biggest steelmaker, and quoted him as saying, "There's a strong possibility of launching a bid." The paper said Mr. Xu suggested a bid could top $200 billion.

The report caused shares of Baosteel's Shanghai-listed subsidiary, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., to rise 5.2% Tuesday, and sent Rio's London shares up 1.3% Tuesday. On Wednesday, Rio's shares in London rose 3.7% to £57.20 ($117.70). Several Baosteel officials later denied Mr. Xu made the reported remarks. Baosteel would need enormous help to make an offer real -- the company reported $5.9 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet at the end of last year.

Indeed, no single Chinese company has the cash for a solo bid -- which, if it reached $200 billion, would be 40 times the value of China's largest overseas acquisition to date. Two of the three major foreign investments by China this year have lost value, which is likely to discourage Chinese officials from such a move for Rio.

Any Chinese move would also require the overt backing of China's government and would face certain political resistance from foreign governments, especially in Australia, home to key Rio mining assets. Australia cited national interest in blocking an effort in 2001 by what is now Royal Dutch Shell PLC to acquire Australian energy producer Woodside Petroleum Ltd.

However, a counterbid to BHP's can't be ruled out, Chinese analysts say, because the deal is so important that executives in China's steel industry and other related sectors are looking at a full range of possible options. Among the alternatives: acquiring a stake in Rio that makes it difficult for BHP to secure approval from enough Rio shareholders for a takeover to proceed. But that, too, could be complicated, not least because the value of the stake could drop if BHP backs away.

A BHP official declined to comment on the latest reports from China. People familiar with the company's thinking say it considers a Chinese counteroffer unlikely. And BHP may be willing to offer a significantly higher bid that would render the prospects of a Chinese rival bid moot. BHP Chief Executive Marius Kloppers has said he is willing to wait as long as a year to complete a Rio deal.

henry

我是看中国确实不太可能成功。联合竞购，对这样复杂的买卖，中国企业的窝里斗的习惯是很难改的。特别是要遇上BHP这样精明的企业。