中国抛售美债

henry

China Sells Treasuries, Signaling Diversification (Update1)
By Kevin Carmichael and Ye Xie
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese investors sold more U.S. Treasury securities in April than any time in at least seven years, a signal the nation may be diversifying the world's largest foreign-exchange reserves.
China, which owns more U.S. debt than any foreign nation except Japan, sold a net $5.8 billion of Treasuries, the first drop in holdings since October 2005, according to Treasury Department figures that go back to 2000. The nation held $414 billion of the $4.4 trillion of marketable Treasuries in April, according to today's report.
China, whose reserves reached $1.2 trillion in March, and other Asian and oil-exporting nations are seeking to lift returns on their investments. That may push up yields on Treasuries, traditionally among the top investments for reserves, and erode demand for the dollar.
``It's part of the ongoing, gradual, long-term diversification story,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the foreign-exchange group in Boston at Mellon Financial Corp. ``It may not necessarily impact the daily market, but this does raise the concern about the dollar.''
China's government announced in March it would establish an agency modeled on Singapore's Temasek Holdings Pte to manage part of its foreign-exchange reserves. Analysts estimate the State Investment Co. may start with $200 billion in capital.
``The old saying was `China would buy Treasuries come hell or high water,''' said Michael Gregory, a senior economist who covers the U.S. economy for BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto. ``The move to more active reserve management is going to spell trouble for Treasuries.''
Foreign Holdings
Foreign investors own about half of all marketable Treasuries. The Treasury Department's monthly international capital report today showed investors abroad bought a net $376 million of U.S. government debt in April, the smallest amount in a year. The U.K., which, through London, acts as a transit point for international investors, sold a net $12.4 billion.
Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, cautioned against conclusions based on one month, as the figures are regularly revised.
``There's no clear sign they are going dump Treasuries,'' said Chandler, noting that Chinese officials have said they have no intention of doing anything that would devalue their holdings.
Greg Anderson, director of currency strategy at ABN Amro Bank NV in Chicago, said he was unconcerned about the decline in China's holdings of Treasuries because the country is still buying U.S. assets, providing support for the dollar.
Blackstone Investment
The Chinese government last month agreed to invest $3 billion in New York-based buyout firm Blackstone Group LP through the soon-to-be-formed State Investment Co.
Foreign investors are also buying more U.S. agency bonds, which have higher yields than Treasuries. They purchased a net $36.1 billion in the securities issued by agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the most since May 2006.
``Investors everywhere are looking for yield,'' Anderson said.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke have repeatedly played down concern of a sell-off in Treasuries holdings by foreign investors. Paulson noted again in appearances this week that China's holdings amount to about one day's worth of trading in the Treasury market.
Kimmitt Lobbying
Still, Treasury officials are monitoring foreign holdings. Treasury Deputy Secretary Robert Kimmitt plans to lobby China and Russia to keep investing in the U.S. on trips to Moscow and Beijing next week. He told reporters today he plans a similar message on upcoming visits to Japan, South Korea and the Middle East.
Clay Lowery, the Treasury's top international official, told reporters after the release this week of the department's semiannual foreign-exchange report that he is spending a lot of time thinking about the subject, while declining to comment specifically.
Sovereign wealth funds now hold a total of $2.5 trillion worldwide, according to estimates by Morgan Stanley. Russia, China and other Asian and oil-exporting nations have assembled the funds with cash from swelling trade surpluses.
China and Russia will use their increasing reserves to invest in an array of assets ``including Treasuries,'' Kimmitt told reporters in Washington today. ``They are sophisticated investors,'' he added, and ``it's not unusual they would seek to diversify.''
Stephen Jen, the head of currency research at Morgan Stanley who has pioneered analysis of sovereign wealth funds, forecasts bond yields to increase 30 to 40 basis points in the coming decade as managers adjust their strategies.
``These are not small effects,'' Jen wrote in a May 31 report. ``We believe that the rising importance of sovereign wealth funds will remain an important theme for the coming years.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Carmichael in Washington at kcarmichael@bloomberg.net ; Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net

henry

美国债务人的命脉掌握在中国手中, 中国出口商的命脉掌握在美国政客手中.

henry

By Noelle Knox, USA TODAY
Would-be home buyers, such as James Aberle, have watched with angst as mortgage rates have jumped nearly 10% in just five weeks. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.74% this week, Freddie Mac said Thursday, its highest in nearly a year.
The spike in rates — which averaged just 6.15% in mid-May — could have a whiplash effect on the market if they stay high. In the short term, it could force fence-sitting buyers to make an offer. Mortgage applications for purchases, for instance, rose 7% last week. But over the long term, higher rates are likely to depress home sales and prices by making mortgages too expensive for some would-be buyers.


That's especially true in such states as California, Arizona and Florida, where prices are out of reach for many working families.

"My fingers are hurting from keeping them crossed, hoping the mortgage rates go back down," says Aberle, 39, a marketing manager. Last weekend, he found a home in Phoenix he wants to buy, but he isn't allowed to lock in a mortgage rate until next week.

The surge in rates means someone who bought a median-price U.S. home of about $220,000 last week, with a 30-year fixed-rate loan and a 10% down payment, would face a monthly payment $77 higher than someone who bought the same home a month earlier, according to an analysis by Genworth Financial for USA TODAY.

After talking with a broker in Highland Ranch, Colo., this week, Tammy and Cecil Lee decided they can't afford to buy their first home now. "Part of it is interest rates," says Tammy, 43. "It just isn't feasible, and it's frustrating."

For each half-point increase in rates, up to 240,000 families in California can no longer afford the state's median-price home (at $597,640), a 2005 study by the California Association of Realtors found.

"Interest rates have gone up more strongly and more quickly than we had anticipated," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. Where they go from here, "depends on upcoming economic news, but I see interest rates moving within a range of no less than 61/2 and as high as 67/8."

Nothaft largely blames rising international interest rates, which have put pressure on U.S. rates to go higher to attract investors.

Zooming interest rates also make it more expensive for those with adjustable-rate mortgages to refinance into fixed-rate loans.

"Any increase (in rates) will be bringing more people into the danger zone," says Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania.

Buyers who got a typical ARM in June 2005 and face their first payment adjustment now are in for a jolt. On a median-price home, their payment would soar about 40% to $1,929 a month, Genworth found.

xboy

1万亿美元抛出去 也是 1个金融 原子弹。。
henry 有没有说抛了多少。。

henry

原帖由 xboy 于 2007-6-18 09:45 发表
1万亿美元抛出去 也是 1个金融 原子弹。。
henry 有没有说抛了多少。。

没有说，只有四月份数据，由以前的净买入转变为净卖出。

rayfromsea

这个帖子应该放在外汇版吧，小建议哈。