Time magazine cover... the greatest contrary indicator?

fugue

http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/


Source: Time Magazine & Stock Charts (edited by Short Side of Long)

While the Time Magazine is busy talking US manufacturing boom today, their front cover in October 2008 was implying Great Depression 2.0. However, the stock market already crashed and discounted majority of the bad news. Sure, further downside was experienced for awhile, but at 800 points S&P was already a bargain. Contrarians, including Warren Buffet, bought knowing that the new recovery will soon be underway. Great timing by "Time" Magazine.


Source: Time Magazine & Calculated Risk (edited by Short Side of Long)

Home Sweet Home in June 2006? Come on guys... seriously. Right at the generational grand top of the  US housing prices. It should be plain and simple to understand that you have to do the opposite of what Time Magazine cover is implying. Nothing else needs to be said here!


Source: Time Magazine & Stock Charts (edited by Short Side of Long)

Let us go back to the beginning of the millennium (I love saying that). Forget the old economy, mining, shipping and agriculture. Forget Crude Oil at $10 per barrel, Soybeans at $4.30 and Gold at $280 per ounce. Time Magazine does not talk value for the next 10 years. They were a lot more interested in discussing the hot topic of the day: technology. In June 2000, Time Magazine cover almost perfectly timed the greatest stock market bubble and the following crash since the 1929. Of course, you had to do the opposite of what Time Magazine cover was implying.


Source: Time Magazine & Stock Charts (edited by Short Side of Long)

I actually wasn't even born in March 1982. Reading the modern history books, it was a time of Kondratiev Summer ending, with extreme inflation and amazingly high interest rates. The chart above shows how the 10 Year Treasury Note traded at the astonishingly high levels of 15% per annum. The fact of the matter is that interest rates have been rising since 1949, but it took Time Magazine until 1982 to publish the infamous cover of the legendary Fed Chairman Mr Volcker with the tile "Interest Rate Anguish". Funnily enough, in perfect manner, once again Time Magazine almost perfectly timed the greatest bond yield peak. Of course, you had to do the opposite of what Time Magazine cover was implying.

You get the drift!

fugue

Is the manufacturing cycle at the beginning or the end?


Source: Time Magazine & Short Side of Long

We should all know the contrarian magazine cover indicator by now. If you aren't familiar with it, consider this basic introduction. I do not find it surprising that it has taken the Time Magazine years to figure out that the US manufacturing cycle has been doing well. Even more importantly, I do not find it surprising that Time Magazine is publishing this topic closer to the end of the business cycle. Where was the optimism in early parts of 2009? Let us not forget Time Magazine's other "famous calls" on the economy, business and the markets:

melamine

Wow，这个太精彩了了，谢谢fugue的分享。
把媒体反向指标作用发挥的淋漓尽致啊！
最后那张图，美国完了

fugue

好莱坞效应：《华尔街之狼》显示美国股市即将崩溃

2014年01月18日  来源：华尔街见闻

http://wallstreetcn.com/node/73036



若历史重演（历史总是会以一种奇怪的方式这样重复着），那么Martin Scorsese导演的《华尔街之狼》应该给投资者敲响警钟，让他们意识到市场崩溃即将到来。

——这就是所谓的“好莱坞效应”。

BI称，这种结论可能有点激进，但是Bond Vigilantes今天公布了一张有意思的图。该图显示，风靡一时的华尔街电影与股市崩溃存在相关性。存在相关性并不等于因果关系，但是存在线性相关，这是一张非常有趣的图。比如：

1987年，Oliver Stone的《华尔街》风靡全球，股市修正23%；

2000年，《锅炉房》火了一把，标普500指数跌去46%；

2009年拍摄的《华尔街2：金钱永不眠》，然后标普500指数跌了48%。

因此，Martin Scorsese导演是否会令股市反弹毁于一旦呢？让我们拭目以待。

fugue

fugue 发表于 2013-4-19 13:09
Is the manufacturing cycle at the beginning or the end?

andy

fugue 发表于 2015-7-27 09:11

如是如是，F版最近挖的很勤奋啊

fugue

andy 发表于 2015-7-27 12:50
如是如是，F版最近挖的很勤奋啊

温故知新，此之谓也

话说挖掘技术哪家强？……