2004年邓普顿访谈

livermore

原文在这里，http://www.sirjohntempleton.org/

我试着将我自己翻译的贴在这里，英文非常烂，还请见谅。请英文好的同学有空的时候费心修改，同时也方便英文不好的同学。

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Interview with Sir John Templeton
by Eleanor Laise
1 April 2004 SmartMoney

Sir John Speaks --- He bought low during the Depression, sold high during the Internet boom and made more than a few good calls in between; Sir John Templeton, dean of contrarians, tells us where to invest now.
他（Sir John Templeton），在大萧条期间的低点买入，卖在互联网泡沫的高点， 做了几次漂亮的操作在这中间，邓普顿爵士，反向操作的前辈，现在告诉我们投资到哪里。

Spend five minutes in Sir John Templeton's offices and you'll learn a lot about the legendary value investor. It's not the imposing portrait, the honorary degrees or even the certificate of knighthood. It's the books. Crisis Investing shares shelf space with Eat Right for Your Type. The Hand of God sits near Invest for Retirement and Natural Capitalism. Several thick volumes occupy substantial real estate on the top shelf. An investing bible? No -- it's the 1991 edition of the London Central Yellow Pages.
花5分钟的时间在邓普顿爵士的办公室， 你将学到很多关于这位传奇的价值投资者。这不是庄严的肖像，荣誉的学位，或者爵士的证书。它是书。（红色部分我也不知道怎样翻译）

A 1934 Yale graduate and Rhodes scholar, Templeton has a voracious appetite for information. The small-town Tennessee native became known as the Marco Polo of his Oxford class, thanks to a round-the-world postgraduation jaunt. In his late 20s he opened his own money-management firm and began to put international investing on the map. His flagship Templeton Growth fund has posted a 13.8 percent annualized return over 50 years, well ahead of the Standard & Poor's 500's 11.1 percent.
1934年耶鲁的毕业生，获得Rhodes奖学金，邓普顿有一个如饥似渴的关于信息的欲望。这个田纳西的小镇已经变的知名。在他20-30岁的时候，他创建了他自己的资产管理公司，并开始在全球投资。他的旗舰，邓普顿增长基金，在过去30年里取得了13.8%的年回报率，领先标准普尔500的11.1%回报率。

Templeton's track record is full of prescient moves. In 1978, when Ford was near bankruptcy, he was a buyer. When everyone else piled into tech in 2000, he was a seller.
邓普顿的投资记录是充满了预见性的操作。在1978年，当福特汽车解禁破产的时候，他是买家。当所有人都疯狂买入科技股的2000年，他是卖家。

Though he now lives in Lyford Cay, a decidedly well-heeled corner of the Bahamas, Templeton maintains a surprisingly modest lifestyle. He tools around at the wheel of a Lincoln Town Car. Orchids and bougainvillea upstage his whitewashed home. It's the ideal setting for a quiet retirement, but that's not Templeton's cup of tea. Since Franklin Resources bought his funds in 1992 for $440 million, he has devoted most of his time to philanthropy. The John Templeton Foundation gives $40 million a year to projects that explore the intersection of science and religion. Templeton's longtime philanthropic efforts earned the naturalized British citizen a knighthood in 1987. In his spare time, he hunts for global bargains, and at 91, he's clearly as curious as ever. As SmartMoney sat down in his cluttered conference room, it was Templeton who fired off the first question: "Have you written any books I can read?" Well, no. But enough about us.
虽然现在他居住在Lyford Cay, 一个风景秀丽的地方，邓普顿爵士维护者一个令人惊讶的生活方式。交通工具是一辆老式的林肯车。兰花和叶子花围绕着粉刷成白色的房子。它的设置是为了一个安静的退休生活，但是这不是邓普顿的风格。自从1992年富兰克林资源公司话了440百万美元买了邓普顿的基金，邓普顿将他的大量时间作慈善事业， John Templeton基金每年提供40百万美元资助科学和信仰的结合。邓普顿长期的慈善事业给他赢得了英国的爵士荣誉，在1987年。在他的空闲时间，他在全球寻找安全便宜的投资，在他91岁的高龄，他一如既往的保持着清醒。作为主持人坐在他的拥挤的接待室， 这是邓普顿提出的第一个问题，“你写过任何我读过的书么？” 恩，没有。

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SmartMoney: How did a kid from rural Tennessee become a pioneer of global value investing?

John Templeton: In Tennessee I didn't meet anybody who owned a share of anything. At Yale there were hundreds of boys from wealthy families, but not a single one who was investing outside one nation. I thought
that was just not sensible. Surely they'd get better results if they searched everywhere rather than limiting their search to one country. Then I investigated the investment counsel profession and couldn't find any investment counselor who specialized in helping people invest outside America. So I saw a wide-open opportunity.
主持人：一个来自田纳西的男孩如何成为一个全球价值投资的先驱？
邓普顿：在田纳西州，我没有遇到任何人他拥有任何一股股票。在耶鲁，这里有数百的孩子来自富裕家庭，但是没有一个人投资在美国外一股。我想这是不合情理的。确实是这样，他们取得了好的投资结果，如果他们研究所有的地方而不是限制在研究一个国家。我开始调查投资咨询专业的人士，并发现没有一个专业人士是帮助人们投资在美国之外。我看到了一个非常广阔的机会。

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Q: In 1939 you bought $100 worth of every New York Stock Exchange listed stock that was trading under $1 per share. There were 104 names, and 37 were already in bankruptcy. Why did you do it?

John Templeton: I was sitting in my office at 30 Rockefeller Plaza in Manhattan when the news came out that Hitler had invaded Poland. It was obvious within a few days that it was going to lead to the Second World War. During war, everything that was in surplus, and therefore unprofitable, becomes scarce and profitable. Three years later I had a profit on 100 out of the 104.

主持人：在1939年你买入纽约股票交易所的低于1美元的股票，每个股票投入100美金。共买入了104个股票，并有37个股票已经破产了，为什么你这样做？
邓普顿：我当时坐在我的30 rockerfeller Plaza 当希特勒入侵芬兰的消息传来的时候。这是显而易见的将导致第二次世界大战。在战争期间，原来所有过剩和没有利润的产品，都变成了紧缺和有利润。三年后，104支股票有100支开始获利。
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Q: What signs helped you see that the U.S. technology bubble was about to burst back in 2000?

John Templeton: If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd. Four years ago the crowd was piling into tech stocks. The prices went sky-high. I sold my clients'
technology stocks, and sold a lot of them short. I have put these philosophies into a simple statement: Help people. When people are desperately trying to sell, help them and buy. When people are enthusiastically trying to buy, help them and sell.
主持人：什么信号帮助你看到美国的高科技泡沫将爆破在2000？
邓普顿：如果你想有比大众更好的投资业绩，你必须做与众不同的事情。4年前群众挤入科技股，价格冲向天空。我卖掉了我的客户的科技股，并开始做空他们。我把这些理念做一个简单陈述：帮助人们。当人们绝望的不顾一切的试图卖的时候，通过买入股票而帮助他们。当人们满腔热情的买的时候，通过卖出股票而帮助他们。

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Q: That's a good way to look at it.

John Templeton: That's mainly a joke.

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Q: In 1992 you predicted that "the next 10 years will be the happiest period, and the most progressive," with "rapidly increasing prosperity for both Europe and America." Are you as optimistic about the next decade?

John Templeton: Very few people realize how fortunate we are to live in the most glorious period in world history. There has been more progress in prosperity than in any previous century. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average never went above 100 until a century ago. Now it's up to 10700, a hundredfold increase in one century. Probably in the next century, the increase will be equally great, if not greater. But I have to say that we are starting from an unusually high price for shares, not just in one industry, but in practically all industries and all nations.
主持人：在1992年，你预测到，“下一个十年（1992-2002）将是一个最开心的时期和获利阶段”和“欧洲和美国将进入高速的繁荣”。是否你依然对下一个10年保持乐观？
邓普顿：只有非常少数的人认识到我们是多么的幸运，生活在最辉煌的历史时期。现在有很多辉煌的进展比上一个世纪。道琼斯工业指数在一个世界以前，从来没有超过100。现在他到达了10700， 100倍的升幅在一个世纪中。很可能在下一个世纪，将会是一样的增长，如果不是超过的话，但是我不的不说的是，我们将开始从一个非同寻常的高价股票，不仅是在某一个行业，很可能是所有行业和国家。

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Q: What is your view of current U.S. stock valuations?

John Templeton: Over the next five years, the chances are about 50/50 that the stock market will be lower. There is a risk that stock indexes will go down by over 30 percent or they'll go up 30 percent. Share prices are
remarkably high right now. The Nasdaq Composite index is trading at 36 times next year's earnings and 95 times last year's earnings. That's high. For most of my lifetime I found bargains one place or another below 12 times earnings.
主持人：你怎么看当前美国股票的价值？
邓普顿：下一个5年，50%的机会股票市场走低。风险就是股票指数将跌30%，或者涨30%。股票价格现在很高了。Nasdaq 指数的在明年预测盈利的36倍，去年盈利的95倍，（此处应该讲EPS的两个值）。这已经很高了。在生活的人生的大部分时间里，我发现便宜货在各处的市场上当EPS低于12的时候。

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Q: How does this environment compare with the market of 1972, when the Dow regained its late '60s highs of around 1000 but didn't break through that level again until 1982?

John Templeton: That was a period of stock market optimism, which goes in cycles. There are at least five of these cycles every century. The one in those years you mentioned was a normal cycle. This one seems to be more exaggerated. Prices in those years never went as high as they are now.
主持人：现在的市场环境和1972的市场相比如何？当时道琼斯指数重返60年代的大约1000点的高点，但是知道1982才突破1000点的水平线？
邓普顿：那是一个股票市场的乐观时期，进入周期循环。每个世纪至少5个这样的周期循环。你提到那些年是其中的一个正常循环。是一个看起来很夸大的。那些年的价格从来没有像现在这样高。

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Q: Are there any sectors in the U.S. that look cheap?

John Templeton: No. I wish there were, but I can't find them. The answer is to play safe. And playing safe means diversifying among nations, industries and types of securities. At present, I don't think anybody should have over half their assets in common stock.
主持人：现在哪一个美国的市场看起来比较便宜？
邓普顿：没有。我希望有，可是我没有发现。答案是安全的操作。安全的操作的意识是在不同的国家和地区之间分散投资，分散投资在不同的行业和不同的证券（泛指股票、债券等）。现在，我不建议任何应该将它一半的资产投资在股票市场。

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Q: And you believe that no one should have more than 50 percent of his or her portfolio in a single country?

John Templeton: Yes. And no more than 25 percent in one industry.
主持人：您认为不应该有人将他/她的50%的投资资产放在单一的一个国家？
邓普顿爵士：是的。而且不应该在一个单一的行业里投入超过25%。

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Q: Do you think there is a real estate bubble in the U.S.?

John Templeton: Yes. Real estate is very different from the stock market because it's so local and separate in terms of type. But in many locations and many types of real estate, prices are dangerously high right now. And
in real estate it's easier to say what's dangerously high. You just look at what it costs to rebuild. Right here in the Bahamas, I have recently seen people pay four or five times for a house what it would cost to rebuild.
主持人：您认为现在美国的房地产有泡沫么？
邓普顿爵士：是的。房地产市场和股票市场是截然不同的，愿意在于它的本地化和房地产种类的类型的差异（住宅、商业和仓储等等）。但是在许多地方和很多类型的房地产，现在价格高的异常危险。在房地产，是非常容易讲他是非常高的价格了。你只要看他的重建成本。就在这里，Bahamas,我最近看到人么付4倍或5倍的建筑成本去买一个独立房子的住宅。

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Q: Do U.S. bonds look more attractive than equities?

John Templeton: Compared to the cost of living [measured by inflation], you can still buy American bonds. But at present there are bonds of other nations that seem safer. It's wise to invest in nations that do not have an unfavorable balance of trade or a government deficit.
主持人：是否美国的债券市场比股票看起来更吸引人？
邓普顿爵士：和生活成本相比较（用通胀率来衡量），你依然可以买美国的债券。但是现在看起来其他国家的债券更加安全。投资在一个没有贸易赤字和政府没有欠债的国家，是一个明智之举。

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Q: Which countries seem the safest?

John Templeton: There are not many. There are almost 200 nations on earth and about 150 different currencies, and most of them have problems even greater than America's. But Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia and Russia don't have big problems.
主持人：那一个国家看起来最安全？
邓普顿爵士：不是很多。在地球上大约有200个国家和地区，大约150个不同种类的货币，并且大部分都有比美国更严重的问题。但是新加坡，香港，南韩，新西兰，澳大利亚和俄罗斯看起来没有太大的问题。

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Q: A few years ago you were buying STRIPs, or Treasury bonds with the coupons cut off. Do you still like them?

John Templeton: I bought STRIPs because the yield to maturity was about 10 percent better than what you could get on Treasury bonds. But I found I did better by changing from U.S. Treasury STRIPs to STRIPs of nations with stronger currencies, like the ones we just talked about.
主持人：几年前您买入了STRIPs债券（将债券利息分离后，将本金以打折的方式出售的美国国债），或者去掉债券利息的美国政府债券。您现在依然喜欢这类投资品么？
邓普顿爵士：我买STRIPs债券是因为债券利率大约是10%，高于购买美国国债。但是我应该将美国国债的STRIP换成强势货币国家的STRIP债券，一会我们将谈到那个国家。

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Q: Where do you think the U.S. dollar will go from here?

John Templeton: The chances of the U.S. dollar going down in relation to the euro are no more than 50/50. The euro has already gone up 47 percent in the last two years. But the yen is up only 25 percent. Japan has put
hundreds of billions of dollars into buying American money. The quantities are so great that that can't continue much longer. Japanese money is likely to go up in the future.
主持人：您对美元的走向有何高见?
邓普顿爵士：美国对欧元继续走低的机会不超过50%。在过去2年时间欧元已经升值47%。而日元仅仅升值了25%。日本付出了数千亿美元去美国的资产（美国国债）。这么巨大的数量的购买不会持续很长时间。在未来日元继续走高的机会大。

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Q: Are you concerned about inflation?

John Templeton: Long term, because we have more and more democracies in the world, we're going to have more and more inflation. Politicians who are willing to spend too much are the ones who get reelected. Look back at history. Inflation has averaged about 2 percent a year. Probably, it will average somewhat more than that in the next century. But from a short-range standpoint, there does not yet seem to be a shortage of
almost any product. Until there's a shortage, you're not likely to see higher prices.
主持人：您怎么认为通货膨胀？
邓普顿爵士：长期来讲，因为世界上有越来越多的民主，我们将有越来越多的通货膨胀。政客们，他们将花越来越多去得到选票。回顾历史，通货膨胀率平均是2%每年。或许，下个世界的平均值将高于2%。但是从短期看，没有看到任何商品短缺的迹象。除非有短缺，否则你看不到更高的价格。

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Q: What do you see as the biggest threat to economic recovery in the U.S.?

John Templeton: We don't need an economic recovery because we're already operating at a very high level. The greatest threat to maintaining this level of economic activity is debt. There's never been a time when people
worldwide, and especially in America, had such a high proportion of debt. I think 20 percent of people who have mortgages on their homes are likely to lose them in foreclosures. When a home goes into bankruptcy, it's sold at auction. That pushes the price down and affects the prices of other homes.
主持人：你怎么看到美国经济复苏的最大的威胁？
邓普顿爵士：我们不需要经济附属，因为我们已经在一个非常高的水平上操作了。最大的威胁是维持这个高水平的经济活动的动力是 债务。没有任何一个时代，尤其是美国，有如此高的债务。我认为20%的有房贷的人将失去他们的房子。当一个家庭走向破产，房子将被拍卖。浙江推低房价并影响其他的家庭。

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Q: Does the U.S. government's debt level worry you?

John Templeton: Oh, yes. There has never been any government anywhere in the world that has such a big deficit in the federal budget. And there's never been a nation in history that had such an adverse balance of trade.
However, if you look at those debts and balance of trade as a percentage of gross national product, they're bad, but not unprecedented.
主持人：你是否担忧美国现在的国债水平？
邓普顿爵士：当然是的。世界上从来没有一个政府有如此多的联邦赤字。历史上从来没有一个国家有如此多的贸易赤字。如果你看到这些联邦赤字和贸易赤字占GDP的百分比，事实太坏了，但是不是史无前例的。

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Q: What does that mean for investors?

John Templeton: It's one more reason why this is a dangerous time to own stocks.
主持人：那对投资者意味着什么？
邓普顿爵士：这就是为什么现在持有股票是危险的很多原因之一。

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Q: Even foreign equities?

John Templeton: Yes. In my long history I could always find some nation where people were desperately trying to sell. Now I can't find a place where people are trying desperately to get out of equities.
主持人：甚至外国股票？
邓普顿爵士：是的。在我的历史记忆中，我总能发现一些国家的人在疯狂的视图卖出。现在我没有发现一个地方的人在疯狂的逃离股市。

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Q: So what do you think about the rush to invest in China?

(MORE)

John Templeton: The cycles will be much wider and more frequent in China because of the lack of information. Having said that, if you're investing, you should put a fairly large part of your total assets in China because
within as short a period as 30 years, China is likely to have the largest gross national product any nation has ever had.
主持人：您怎么认为现在大量急速的投资中国？
邓普顿爵士：这些循环将非常剧烈和经常的在中国， 因为缺乏信息。不得不说，如果你投资，你应该投资足够大的资产在中国，因为在最近的30年，中国将有任何国家都大的GDP，从来没有过的大。

Q: Is India as great an opportunity as China?

John Templeton: Yes. You could say almost the same thing about India, except in terms of speed. The improvement in India is wonderful but not as fast. But the Indian market is up more than 80 percent in 12 months. That's a danger signal. It means you're going to take a lot of risk that you wouldn't have taken a year before.
主持人：是否印度也有中国一样的机会？
邓普顿爵士：是的，我要讲的关于印度的事，和中国差不多，除了速度。印度的进步是瞩目的，但是不是快速的。但是印度的市场升了80%在12个月。这是一个危险的信号。意味着你将承担大量的风险，和一年前比较。

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Q: What's the world's best stock market now?

John Templeton: The best answer is none. There are so many securities analysts working on that question that the prices in different markets are less out of line than normal.
主持人：现在世界上最好的股票市场是哪里？
邓普顿爵士：最佳答案是没有。许多证券分析关于这个问题，很难比较不同市场的价格。

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Q: So an influx of information has made life difficult for global value investors?

John Templeton: When I became an investment counselor, there were only 17 security analysts on earth. Now, in America alone, there are more than 32,000, and they do have an effect on prices by doing research on where to find bargains.
主持人：是否大量涌入的信息给全球价值投资者带来的困难？
邓普顿爵士：当我成为一个投资顾问的时候，地球上只有17个证券分析师。现在，仅仅在美国，就有超过32000人，他们的研究在那里发现便宜货对价格产生影响。
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Q: If you were starting out in the investing world today, what would you do?

John Templeton: Play safe. If you don't have your money in equities, it's very difficult to find a place to put it. Gold has already gone up. . . .
People also tend to think it's safe to put your money in the bank. When I was studying in the U.K., people swore that it was safe to put your money in pounds sterling. But within a few years, sterling went down from $5 a pound to $1.50 a pound because of the war. If gold and bank accounts are no longer safe, where can you put it? Diversify. Don't put too much in any one thing.
主持人：如果你今天开始全球投资，你要怎么做？
邓普顿爵士：安全的操作。如果你不投资你的钱在证券市场，是非常困难的寻找一个地方去投入他们。黄金已经开始升了。
人们试图认为把钱存在银行是安全的。当我在研究英国时，人们发誓说英镑是最全的投资。但是几年后，由于战争的原因，英镑从5美元跌到了1.5美元。如果黄金和银行账户都不是长久的安全，你能投资在那里？分散投资。不要在过多的投资在一个品种上。

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Q: What have you been buying lately?

John Templeton: I believe there are fewer opportunities than I've ever seen in 91 years. In the last year I've been using market-neutral hedge funds, whose policy is to have always the same quantity of longs and shorts. I have invested lately in two funds that are managed by people who worked for me when I was in the investment business: Jane Siebels-Kilnes' Siebels Multi-Fund and Mark Holowesko's Holowesko Global fund. They aren't registered with the SEC, however, so American stockbrokers can't sell them.
主持人：您以后打算买入什么？
邓普顿爵士：我相信会有几次就会，就像我在过去91年看到的那样。在去年，我用市场-中性对冲基金，它的策略是同时持有同样数量的空头和多头。我还投资了两支基金，这两只基金的管理人都是我曾经的雇员： Jane Siebels-Kilnes’ Siebels Multi-Fund和Mark Holowesko;s Holowesko Global Fund。他们不受SEC监管，所以，美国的证券公司不能卖这些产品。

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Q: After the corporate scandals of recent years, how can we restore trust in the markets?

John Templeton: The answer is comparison. When you're worried about those scandals, stop and think, what nation would you feel safer in? At what time in world history could you feel safer? I don't think you'll find any time when the degree of information, the degree of honesty, is higher than it is today.
主持人：经过最近几年的企业丑闻，我们如何还能信任市场？
邓普顿爵士：答案是对比分析。当你担心这些丑闻，停下来你并仔细思考，那个国家是你认为安全的地方？在世界历史上的那个时间你曾经感到安全过？我不认为你能发现任何一个时期的信息等级和诚信的等级会高于今天。

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Q: You don't think there's anything the government should do to restore trust?

John Templeton: Yes. Keep their hands off. It has been proven over and over that the best regulation is free competition. Those that are not doing a good job for the public get squeezed out. I can't think of any nation where the quantity of regulation is already not too high.
主持人：你认为政府不需要做任何事去恢复信任？
邓普顿爵士：是的，把他们的手拿开，不要干预任何事。经过无数次的证明和验证，最好的监管就是自由竞争。政府干预去恢复信心，不是一个好的办法能有效的将公众的不信任去掉。任何一个国家的监管都已经足够的多了。

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Q: A couple of days ago, Franklin Resources, the firm that bought your funds, was accused of participating in market-timing arrangements. What's your take on the fund scandal?

John Templeton: Everything I've just said applies double to that. Can you think of any industry or any nation where there are fewer questionable practices than there are in American mutual funds? I can't. If all the claims in the news were added up, what would it cost a mutual fund owner? One cent.
主持人：几天以前，Franklin Resources，该公司买了你的基金，被告参与market-timing arrangements. 你如何对基金的留言进行评价？
邓普顿爵士：每件事我都进行的数次的说明。你能想像任何行业或任何国家受到的质疑比美国的共同基金少么？我不能。如果将所有的新闻报道都加起来，将花费基金持有者多少成本？一分钱。

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Q: You've lived here in the Bahamas for 31 years . . .

John Templeton: Yes. I've found my results for investment clients were far better here than when I had my office in 30 Rockefeller Plaza. When you're in Manhattan, it's much more difficult to go opposite to the crowd.
主持人：您生活在Bahamas已经31年….
邓普顿爵士：是的，我发现我为客户的投资收益好过在30 Rockefeller Plaza. 当你在麦哈顿，那是非常困难的站到群众的对面的。

slowblue

翻译的比较难看明白

rodmanfeng

巨熊兄，您的水平不止于此。

slowblue

求达人翻译