Merrill Lynch-FX daily-081230

黄河之水天上来

FX DAILY
30 Dec 2008 : Tuesday
Note: This report is provided for general information only; it is not a research report. The information herein was obtained
from various sources; Merrill Lynch does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and is not responsible for any
omissions or errors or for the consequences of reliance by you or any other person upon any statement or information
contained herein. The information provided in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, the
financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report; neither does it represent
investment advice or personal recommendation to any person. It is subject to change. Investors should not rely on this
information in making their investment decisions and should consult with their Merrill Lynch Financial Advisor/Private
Wealth Manager regarding the appropriateness of investing in currencies, securities or investment strategies presented in this
report. Income from such investments, if any, may fluctuate. Statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Past
performance (if any) is not a representation of future performance.
ECONOMIC HEADLINES
•CHF Dec KOF Indicator -0.39 (exp -0.25)
FX HIGHLIGHTS
- USD fell broadly on Mideast tensions and grim outlook for US economy.
- GBP hit record low against EUR after reports of further slide in UK home prices.
- Japan's Nakagawa reportedly watching volatility in forex market with alarm.
- CHF edged higher as Israeli bombings continue for 3rd consecutive day.
- Oil climbed beyond $42 and gold gained 1.9% in wake of hostilities.
- Commodity bloc catch bid with oil and gold, exacerbated by holiday thin trade.
- Yuan closed well below central bank's reference rate; more pressure seen.
- KRW up 2.9 percent on aggressive dollar-selling intervention by authorities.
- TWD rallied yet again to one week high on exporter demand
- USD stages recovery in second half of US session albeit thin liquidity contributed to the wild swings
SHORT TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
CCY TREND Mid R1 S1
EUR/$ flat 1.4080 1.4260 1.3902
GBP/$ down 1.4480 1.4705 1.4276
$/JPY flat 90.55 91.58 89.55
$/CHF down 1.0560 1.0795 1.0411
AUD/$ flat 0.6880 0.6969 0.6764
NZD/$ flat 0.5780 0.5900 0.5643
$/CAD flat 1.2180 1.2397 1.1985
$/SGD flat 1.4430 1.4615 1.4315
OUTLOOK
􀂃 EUR supportive on CHF strength and EURGBP parity play.
􀂃 GBP remains weak on bleak UK economics and interest rate outlook.
􀂃 USDJPY caught in tight range with support near 90 on speculation of intervention.
TRADE IDEAS
Spot
1. Buy EURGBP at 0.9610 if done stop loss at 0.9470 oco take profit 0.9990.
2. Buy AUDNZD at 1.1750 if done stop loss at 1.1630 oco take profit 1.1950.
3. Buy CHFJPY at 84.10 if done stop loss at 82.95 oco take profit 86.60.
4. Sell EURAUD at 2.0750 if done stop loss at 2.0900 oco take profit 2.0450.
FX DAILY
30 Dec 2008 : Tuesday
Note: This report is provided for general information only; it is not a research report. The information herein was obtained
from various sources; Merrill Lynch does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and is not responsible for any
omissions or errors or for the consequences of reliance by you or any other person upon any statement or information
contained herein. The information provided in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, the
financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report; neither does it represent
investment advice or personal recommendation to any person. It is subject to change. Investors should not rely on this
information in making their investment decisions and should consult with their Merrill Lynch Financial Advisor/Private
Wealth Manager regarding the appropriateness of investing in currencies, securities or investment strategies presented in this
report. Income from such investments, if any, may fluctuate. Statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Past
performance (if any) is not a representation of future performance.
Option
1. Zero Cost Option, USDJPY, 6 mth
a. Buy USD Call JPY Put, Strike = 93.00
b. Sell USD Put JPY Call, Strike = 82.00
Spot ref 89.00, zero cost
2. Sell AUD Put USD Call, 2 wk
Strike = 0.6490, Spot ref = 0.6850
I/B Premium = 0.50%
DCP
USD Base Alt CAD
EUR Base Alt AUD
GBP Base Alt USD, AUD, EUR
NZD Base Alt AUD
AUD Base Alt NZD
UPCOMING KEY EVENTS
􀂃 30 Dec EUR Eurozone M3; USD Consumer Confidence
􀂃 31 Dec AUD Private Sector Credit; USD Initial Jobless Claims
􀂃 01 Jan New Year’s Day (Holiday)
􀂃 02 Jan GBP Consumer Credit, PMI & Mortgage Approvals; USD ISM Manuf.
􀂃 05 Jan CHF PMI; USD Construction spending