<H1 class=articleTitle style="MARGIN: 0px">Mr. Rogers Pushes<BR>Commodities<BR>For Kids, Adults</H1>
<DIV style=" ADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; FONT: bold 16px/17px Times New Roman, Times, Serif; COLOR: #666; PADDING-TOP: 13px">Longtime Bull Isn't Fazed<BR>By Drop in Oil and Copper;<BR>Labeling Things in Chinese</DIV>
<DIV style="ADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; FONT: bold 12px times new roman, times, serif; PADDING-TOP: 12px"><SPAN id=byl style="FONT: bold 12px times new roman, times, serif">By <B>ANN DAVIS</B><BR><SPAN class=aTime>December 9, 2006; age B1</SPAN></SPAN><BR></DIV>
<P class=times>Ask Jim Rogers what to leave the next generation, and he will tell you what is in his three-year-old daughter's portfolio: commodities and Swiss francs.</P>
<P class=times>When she is 18 in 2021, the world will likely be riding the tail end of a prolonged bull market in natural resources, he says. The dollar may no longer be the world's preferred currency. And Hilton Augusta Parker Rogers, his daughter, will hopefully be able to say, "I'm rich," in Chinese.</P>
<TABLE class=imglftbdy cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=150 align=left border=0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD><IMG class=imgpln height=221 alt=[Photo] hspace=0 src="http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/MI-AJ594_WROGER_20061208155815.jpg" width=150 border=0></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD class=medcptnocrd>Jim Rogers concedes that timing when to get in and out of markets is not his strength.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<P class=times>Mr. Rogers, 64, is a longtime bull on commodities who, for many years, seemed early to the party. But commodities prices were creeping up even in the dot-com years and have soared in the past few years -- largely driven by China's massive appetite for everything from gold to concrete. It has given him plenty of chances to say, "I told you so."</P>
<P class=times>The question he faces now: Is it still a boom when prices droop in key markets like energy? Commodities are famously volatile, and some markets have hit rough spells in recent months. After flirting with $80 in July, crude oil recently fell to the mid-$50s; it settled at $62.03 Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper is 23% off its May high on the Comex division of Nymex and could turn sluggish amid a housing slowdown in the U.S. that damps demand for pipes and parts.</P>
<P class=times>Mr. Rogers calls the pullbacks a buying opportunity and points out that agricultural commodities such as corn and wheat are hitting multiyear highs. Now he is talking about moving his family to China from his current Manhattan residence (where, incidentally, the furniture and appliances are labeled with both English and Chinese names to help his daughter learn the language).</P>
<P class=times>In the past week, Mr. Rogers tried to reassure Morgan Stanley clients at a speech in Boston that oil's slide and a broader commodities dip in May were short-term adjustments in a still-rising market. In a later interview at his New York home, filled with mementos from the round-the-world trip he and his wife took in a custom Mercedes -- the subject of a recent book, "Adventure Capitalist" -- he said he wouldn't presume to know how long the current oil downturn will last. "But I know I'm not going to pay too much attention, because I know that's how markets work, and we've got a long way to go." In fact, he adds: "I am delighted to see oil consolidating."</P>
<P class=times>His upbeat mood has drawn some critics, notably commodities-market pessimist Stephen Roach, the chief global economist for Morgan Stanley, the very bank whose brokerage clients Mr. Rogers just addressed. Mr. Roach sees slowing world growth, particularly in the U.S. and China, where Mr. Rogers sees mostly opportunity.</P>
<P class=times>In at least some respects, Mr. Rogers also has a gloomy view: Stocks in the West have peaked and are too expensive, he says. Bonds peaked in 2003; he only recommends short-term or special-situation bonds. The U.S. economy "is probably in a recession right now."</P>
<P class=times>He says the Bush administration's policy of devaluing the dollar provides some support to commodity prices denominated in dollars because it takes more dollars to buy an ounce of gold or barrel of oil. The problem is that the decline in the dollar "is going to mess up our standard of living drastically." He believes his daughter's Swiss francs will better hold their value.</P>
<P class=times>He and his wife and daughter have spent the last two summers in China, and plan to go back next summer, he says. As they hunt for a permanent home, they are considering the relatively unknown Dalian, a major port city with six million people. It has relatively clean air and one of China's three commodities exchanges (currently not open to most foreign investors).</P>
<P class=times>While few investors are willing or can afford to turn their investment thesis into a lifestyle like Mr. Rogers, many are wondering how to weather the short-term drop in some energy commodities.</P>
<P class=times>Mr. Rogers, who won't disclose his net worth, admits that timing when to get in and out of markets isn't his strength. Around the end of 2005 and the first half of 2006, he said he sold all his emerging-market stocks except China. He looked smart in May and June, after a big selloff, but emerging-market indexes have roared back since. (China, of course, has led the charge, so he is actually looking even better, he points out.) He says parking money in an index helps avoid bigger swings.</P>
<P class=times>He, too, could experience the housing slump firsthand: He says he won't buy property in China until he sells his home on Manhattan's Upper West Side. He bought it for $107,000 in 1977 and is now asking $15 million. As a private investor, he declines to disclose his investing track record. He also says that, because he is on the stump so often, he doesn't currently invest in individual commodities, on the advice of his lawyers, because he might be seen as promoting his own holdings.</P>
<P class=times>However, he says a part of his net worth is invested in the Rogers International Commodity Index, which he launched in 1998 and licensed to other financial institutions. The RICI, as it is called, has returned 253.3% from August 1998 through November. During that period, the S&P 500 Total Return Index rose 42.5%, and the Lehman Brothers U.S. Long Treasury Index rose 74.7%.</P>
<P class=times>Most of the money he allocates to the index is in the main RICI index. But this summer, he moved funds into RICI's agricultural index. Because of world demand for food, as well as fuels based on food, agriculture is "the best place for investors right now," he told the Morgan Stanley crowd.</P>
<P class=times>His index has suffered in other ways lately, because a portion of the funds linked to it were on deposit with Refco Inc., the commodities clearinghouse that sank into bankruptcy protection amid alleged financial improprieties. The manager of those funds, which investors haven't been able to access, recently announced that it expects the Rogers Funds to recover 96% to 100% of the funds' securities and cash.</P>
<P class=times>Despite his market successes, he can seem a bit thrifty. After the Morgan Stanley speech Monday, he rode a slow train home from Boston that got him into Manhattan at 2 a.m. But it was worth it, he says: "I got to walk my daughter to school."</P> |
发表于 2006-12-11 11:08:07
提升卡
置顶卡
变色卡